99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the House?

All 435 seats are on the ballot. 218 seats make a majority.

Democrats are very likely to control the House (97%).

Democrats
97%
chance of control
Republicans
3%
Avg. D seats
238.280% range 224–253
Avg. R seats
196.880% range 182–211
Now
210 D · 215 R · 1 other · 9 vacant435 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (290+ seats): under 1% each.

Democrats are clearly favored to control the House (94%).

Democrats
94%
chance of control
Republicans
6%
Avg. D seats
238.880% range 221–257
Avg. R seats
196.280% range 178–214
Now
210 D · 215 R · 1 other · 9 vacant435 up this year

Neither party has a meaningful chance of a two-thirds supermajority (290+ seats): under 1% each.

218 for control
218 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 435 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

22 seats projected to flip: 17 R→D, 4 D→R, 1 Ind.→D. 14 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

24 seats projected to flip: 18 R→D, 5 D→R, 1 Ind.→D. 16 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D198

Show 192 more

Likely D14

Lean D13

Toss-up16

Lean R19

Likely R42

Solid R133

Show 127 more

Solid D173

Show 167 more

Likely D33

Lean D19

Toss-up18

Lean R30

Likely R62

Show 56 more

Solid R100

Show 94 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Loading the district map… open it directly.

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

WI-1Mitchell BermanBryan SteilFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.53%Rep. KY-6Zach DemboRalph AlvaradoFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.54%Rep. FL-22Pia DandiyaCasey Askar51%Dem.54%Rep. IA-2Lindsay JamesJoe MitchellFlip riskFlip risk52%Dem.58%Rep. PA-8Paige CognettiRob BresnahanFlip riskFlip risk53%Dem.54%Rep. MI-4Sean McCannBill HuizengaFlip riskFlip risk54%Rep.59%Rep. VA-1Shannon TaylorRob WittmanFlip riskD flip54%Dem.62%Dem. TX-15Bobby PulidoMonica De La CruzFlip riskD flip54%Dem.66%Dem. ME-2Matthew DunlapPaul LePageFlip riskR flip55%Dem.64%Rep. MI-10Christina HinesMike Bouchard Jr.Flip riskFlip risk55%Dem.59%Rep.

Most likely to flip

LA-6Pat ForbesBlake MiguezR flipR flip>99%to flip99%to flip NE-2Denise PowellBrinker HardingD flipD flip99%to flip98%to flip CA-1Mike McGuireJames GallagherD flipD flip98%to flip97%to flip TN-9Justin PearsonBrent TaylorR flipR flip94%to flip94%to flip CA-48Marni von WilpertJim DesmondD flipD flip92%to flip89%to flip CO-8Manny RutinelGabe EvansD flipD flip89%to flip85%to flip NJ-7Rebecca BennettThomas Kean Jr.D flipD flip86%to flip84%to flip NY-17Cait ConleyMike LawlerD flipD flip84%to flip85%to flip PA-7Bob BrooksRyan MackenzieD flipD flip82%to flip79%to flip IA-3Sarah Trone GarriottZach NunnD flipD flip81%to flip72%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats 97%Republicans 3%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats 94%Republicans 6%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

218 for D control →210220230240250260270
218 for D control →200220240260280

Every race

435 races, 18 without a contest between the major parties.

  • RCV AK, ME Ranked-choice voting: if nobody wins a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to the next choice.
  • Top two CA, WA Top-two primary: every candidate ran on one primary ballot, and the two with the most votes advanced, whatever their party.
  • Top four AK Top-four primary: every candidate ran on one primary ballot, and the four with the most votes advanced.
  • All-party LA All-party ballot: every candidate, of any party, is on the November ballot.
  • Runoff GA, LA Runoff: if no candidate reaches the required share of the vote, the top two meet again in a second round.
  • Fusion CT, NY, OR, VT Fusion voting: a candidate can appear on several party lines, and the votes add up.
435 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
AK-AL
● Bill Hill● Nick Begich IIIINCAlso: Eric Hafner (D), Jim McDermott (L)
24%76%
27%73%
R+4.3R+4.0Lean RLean RR+1315
AL-1
● Clyde Jones Jr.● Jerry Carl
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.3R+27.8Solid RSolid RR+35—
AL-2R flipR flip
● Shomari FiguresINC● Rhett Marques
19%81%
21%79%
R+5.0R+5.3Likely RLean RR+133
AL-3
● Lee McInnis● Mike RogersINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.4R+39.1Solid RSolid RR+45—
AL-4
● Amanda Pusczek● Robert AderholtINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+57.9R+58.8Solid RSolid RR+65—
AL-5
● Andrew Sneed● Dale StrongINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+19.6R+20.9Solid RSolid RR+28—
AL-6
● Maurice Mercer● Gary PalmerINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.9R+27.5Solid RSolid RR+35—
AL-7
● Terri SewellINC● Ammie Akin
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.1D+26.3Solid DSolid DD+19—
AR-1
● Terri Green● Rick CrawfordINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.1R+37.3Solid RSolid RR+45—
AR-2
● Chris Jones● French HillINC
19%81%
22%78%
R+5.9R+6.7Likely RLean RR+15—
AR-3
● Robb Ryerse● Steve WomackINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+18.3R+16.9Solid RSolid RR+26—
AR-4
● James Russell● Bruce WestermanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.9R+30.8Solid RSolid RR+39—
AZ-1D flipD flip
● Amish Shah● Jay Feely
77%23%
74%26%
D+4.5D+4.5Lean DLean DR+21
AZ-2
● Jonathan Nez● Eli CraneINC
16%84%
22%78%
R+5.5R+5.0Likely RLean RR+143
AZ-3
● Yassamin AnsariINC● No RepublicanAlso: Alan Aversa (NL), David Redkey (G)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+43—
AZ-4
● Greg StantonINC● Zuhdi Jasser
99%1%
96%4%
D+17.5D+16.8Solid DSolid DD+8—
AZ-5
● Elizabeth Lee● Mark Lamb
5%95%
11%89%
R+12.2R+11.0Solid RLikely RR+19—
AZ-6D flipD flip
● JoAnna Mendoza● Juan CiscomaniINC
63%37%
67%33%
D+1.9D+3.4Lean DLean DR+13
AZ-7
● Adelita GrijalvaINC● Daniel Butierez
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.2D+32.7Solid DSolid DD+25—
AZ-8
● Bernadette Greene-Placentia● Abraham HamadehINC
12%88%
21%79%
R+8.0R+7.0Likely RLean RR+16—
AZ-9
● Dani Sterbinsky● Paul GosarINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.2R+22.0Solid RSolid RR+30—
CA-1D flipD flip
● Mike McGuire● James GallagherINC
98%2%
97%3%
D+16.2D+18.8Solid DSolid DD+14—
CA-2
● Jared HuffmanINC● Robin Littau
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+31.4D+29.8Solid DSolid DD+26—
CA-3
● Ami BeraINC● Robb Tucker
99%1%
96%4%
D+18.5D+16.4Solid DSolid DD+12—
CA-4D vs D
● Mike ThompsonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Eric Jones (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+17—
CA-5
● Michael Masuda● Tom McClintockINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+13.7R+13.0Solid RLikely RR+19—
CA-6D flipD flip
● Richard Pan● Kevin Kiley
86%14%
81%19%
D+8.5D+9.1Likely DLikely DD+102
CA-7D vs D
● Doris MatsuiINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mai Vang (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+151
CA-8
● John GaramendiINC● Rudy Recile
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.5D+41.1Solid DSolid DD+37—
CA-9
● Josh HarderINC● John McBride
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+26.7D+20.7Solid DSolid DD+16—
CA-10
● Mark DeSaulnierINC● Jeff Frese
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.5D+40.8Solid DSolid DD+36—
CA-11D vs D
● Scott Wiener● No RepublicanAlso: Connie Chan (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+723
CA-12D vs D
● Lateefah SimonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jamie Joyce (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+79—
CA-13
● Adam GrayINC● Kevin Lincoln
95%5%
85%15%
D+13.0D+9.7Solid DLikely DD+5—
CA-14D vs D
● Aisha WahabINC● No RepublicanAlso: Melissa Hernandez (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+39—
CA-15
● Kevin MullinINC● Charles Hoelter
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+56.3D+57.4Solid DSolid DD+52—
CA-16
● Sam LiccardoINC● Peter Soulé
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+55.9D+56.0Solid DSolid DD+51—
CA-17
● Ro KhannaINC● Ritesh Tandon
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+51.4D+50.0Solid DSolid DD+43—
CA-18
● Zoe LofgrenINC● Shane Lewis
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.0D+38.9Solid DSolid DD+33—
CA-19
● Jimmy PanettaINC● Peter Coe Verbica
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+43.5D+41.8Solid DSolid DD+37—
CA-20
● Sandra Van Scotter● Vince FongINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+27.0R+24.0Solid RSolid RR+31—
CA-21
● Jim CostaINC● Kyle Kirkland
99%1%
94%6%
D+19.0D+15.8Solid DLikely DD+10—
CA-22D flipD flip
● Randy Villegas● David ValadaoINC
75%25%
73%27%
D+5.3D+5.6Lean DLean DD+31
CA-23
● Tessa Lynn Hodge● Jay ObernolteINC
4%96%
12%88%
R+13.0R+10.6Solid RLikely RR+18—
CA-24
● Salud CarbajalINC● Bob Smith
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.8D+32.9Solid DSolid DD+27—
CA-25
● Raul RuizINC● Joe Males
98%2%
95%5%
D+17.3D+16.0Solid DLikely DD+9—
CA-26
● Jacqui Irwin● Sam Gallucci
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+24.9D+23.9Solid DSolid DD+18—
CA-27
● George WhitesidesINC● Jason Gibbs
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+21.8D+18.9Solid DSolid DD+12—
CA-28
● Judy ChuINC● April Verlato
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+36.7D+34.7Solid DSolid DD+28—
CA-29D vs D
● Luz RivasINC● No RepublicanAlso: Angelica Dueñas (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+39—
CA-30
● Laura FriedmanINC● Scott Meyers
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+48.7D+48.3Solid DSolid DD+42—
CA-31
● Gil CisnerosINC● Eric Ching
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+23.5D+22.5Solid DSolid DD+16—
CA-32
● Brad ShermanINC● Larry Thompson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+37.4D+34.2Solid DSolid DD+28—
CA-33
● Pete AguilarINC● Stephanie Vargas
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+23.1D+20.2Solid DSolid DD+14—
CA-34D vs D
● Jimmy GomezINC● No RepublicanAlso: Angela Gonzales-Torres (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+562
CA-35
● Norma TorresINC● Mike Cargile
99%1%
96%4%
D+21.4D+17.9Solid DSolid DD+12—
CA-36
● Ted LieuINC● Houston Brignano
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+48.7D+48.5Solid DSolid DD+42—
CA-37D vs D
● Sydney Kamlager-DoveINC● No RepublicanAlso: Samantha Mota (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+65—
CA-38
● Hilda Solis● Pedro Casas
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+25.3D+24.1Solid DSolid DD+17—
CA-39
● Mark TakanoINC● Steve Manos
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+22.0D+20.0Solid DSolid DD+14—
CA-40R vs R
● No Democrat● Young KimINCAlso: Ken Calvert (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+11—
CA-41
● Linda SánchezINC● Mitch Clemmons
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.4D+24.3Solid DSolid DD+18—
CA-42
● Robert GarciaINC● Brian Burley
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+25.3D+21.5Solid DSolid DD+15—
CA-43
● Maxine WatersINC● Cristian Morales
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+59.0D+61.1Solid DSolid DD+54—
CA-44
● Nanette BarragánINC● Genevieve Angel
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+47.7D+47.8Solid DSolid DD+41—
CA-45
● Derek TranINC● Chuong Vo
98%2%
91%9%
D+15.3D+13.4Solid DLikely DD+6—
CA-46
● Lou CorreaINC● David Pan
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.5D+26.4Solid DSolid DD+20—
CA-47
● Dave MinINC● Jenny Le Roux
99%1%
97%3%
D+21.1D+18.5Solid DSolid DD+12—
CA-48D flipD flip
● Marni von Wilpert● Jim Desmond
92%8%
89%11%
D+10.3D+11.0Likely DLikely DD+4—
CA-49
● Mike LevinINC● Armen Kurdian
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+21.7D+19.9Solid DSolid DD+13—
CA-50
● Scott PetersINC● Steve Cohen
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.0D+25.8Solid DSolid DD+20—
CA-51
● Sara JacobsINC● Ricardo Cabrera
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.7D+26.3Solid DSolid DD+20—
CA-52
● Juan VargasINC● Jeff Belle
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.2D+28.2Solid DSolid DD+22—
CO-1
● Melat Kiros● Christy Peterson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+64.7D+65.9Solid DSolid DD+59—
CO-2
● Joe NeguseINC● Kelley Dennison
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+48.7D+46.2Solid DSolid DD+41—
CO-3
● Dwayne Romero● Jeff HurdINC
29%71%
29%71%
R+3.2R+3.7Lean RLean RR+101
CO-4
● Eileen Laubacher● Lauren BoebertINCAlso: Douglas Mangeris (L)
16%84%
5%95%
R+6.3R+11.8Likely RSolid RR+191
CO-5
● Jessica Killin● Jeff CrankINC
34%66%
29%71%
R+2.4R+3.8Lean RLean RR+102
CO-6
● Jason CrowINC● Jason Clark
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+31.7D+28.4Solid DSolid DD+21—
CO-7
● Brittany PettersenINC● Tim Bennett
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+24.9D+20.7Solid DSolid DD+15—
CO-8D flipD flip
● Manny Rutinel● Gabe EvansINC
89%11%
85%15%
D+7.3D+7.0Likely DLikely DEven1
CT-1
● Luke Bronin● Amy Chai
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.2D+33.1Solid DSolid DD+24—
CT-2
● Joe CourtneyINC● George Austin
>99%<1%
95%5%
D+22.6D+14.8Solid DLikely DD+9—
CT-3
● Rosa DeLauroINC● Chris Lancia
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.1D+25.3Solid DSolid DD+16—
CT-4
● Jim HimesINC● Michael Goldstein
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+38.9D+35.1Solid DSolid DD+26—
CT-5
● Jahana HayesINC● Chris Shea
>99%1%
96%4%
D+20.7D+16.1Solid DSolid DD+7—
DE-AL
● Sarah McBrideINC● Joseph Arminio
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+25.8D+23.9Solid DSolid DD+16—
FL-1
● Gay Valimont● Jimmy PatronisINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.6R+28.5Solid RSolid RR+36—
FL-2
● Amanda Green● Austin Rogers
13%87%
16%84%
R+8.0R+8.8Likely RLikely RR+16—
FL-3
● Seth Harp● Kat CammackINC
3%97%
9%91%
R+13.2R+11.6Solid RLikely RR+19—
FL-4Flip risk
● LaShonda Holloway● Aaron BeanINC
26%74%
43%57%
R+4.4R+1.5Lean RToss-upR+9—
FL-5
● Rachel Grage● John RutherfordINC
5%95%
9%91%
R+12.0R+12.0Solid RLikely RR+20—
FL-6
● Eric Yonce● Randy FineINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.5R+21.9Solid RSolid RR+29—
FL-7
● Bale Dalton● Ryan Elijah
36%64%
34%66%
R+2.4R+3.6Lean RLean RR+11—
FL-8
● Jennifer Jenkins● Mike HaridopolosINC
8%92%
14%86%
R+8.3R+7.6Likely RLikely RR+152
FL-9R flipR flip
● Darren SotoINC● Dan Green
28%72%
21%79%
R+3.6R+6.1Lean RLean RR+151
FL-10
● Maxwell FrostINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+27—
FL-11
● James Pericola● Joe Strada
15%85%
20%80%
R+6.3R+6.2Likely RLikely RR+141
FL-12
● Kimberly Overman● Gus BilirakisINC
15%85%
25%75%
R+7.1R+5.9Likely RLean RR+13—
FL-13
● Leela Gray● Anna Paulina LunaINC
25%75%
33%67%
R+3.9R+2.8Lean RLean RR+125
FL-14
● Kathy CastorINC● Mike Beltran
72%28%
64%36%
D+3.8D+2.9Lean DLean DR+91
FL-15
● Robert People● Laurel LeeINC
3%97%
12%88%
R+12.9R+10.2Solid RLikely RR+17—
FL-16
● Kelly Kirschner● Sydney Gruters
22%78%
23%77%
R+4.6R+5.1Lean RLean RR+132
FL-17
● Matthew Montavon● Greg SteubeINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+13.9R+12.9Solid RLikely RR+20—
FL-18
● Curtis Gibson● Scott FranklinINC
7%93%
16%84%
R+10.4R+8.7Likely RLikely RR+15—
FL-19
● Victor Arias● Jim Schwartzel
1%99%
2%98%
R+19.5R+21.7Solid RSolid RR+28—
FL-20
● Debbie Wasserman SchultzINC● Brent Andersen
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+47.5D+48.0Solid DSolid DD+41—
FL-21
● James Martin● Brian MastINC
7%93%
17%83%
R+10.1R+8.5Likely RLikely RR+15—
FL-22
● Pia Dandiya● Casey Askar
51%49%
46%54%
D+0.2R+0.7Toss-upToss-upR+72
FL-23
● Lois FrankelINC● Deborah Adeimy
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+25.9D+23.0Solid DSolid DD+17—
FL-24
● Oliver Gilbert● Te Mayonna Brown
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.3D+51.7Solid DSolid DD+43—
FL-25
● Jared MoskowitzINC● Scott Singer
81%19%
69%31%
D+5.9D+4.2Likely DLean DR+61
FL-26
● Nicole Locklin● Mario Díaz-BalartINC
20%80%
25%75%
R+6.7R+6.6Likely RLean RR+14—
FL-27
● Eliott Rodriguez● María Elvira SalazarINC
23%77%
29%71%
R+5.0R+4.4Lean RLean RR+113
FL-28
● Phil Ehr● Carlos GiménezINC
5%95%
9%91%
R+13.2R+13.7Likely RLikely RR+21—
GA-1Runoff 6%
● Amanda Hollowell● Jim Kingston
6%94%
17%83%
R+11.6R+8.6Likely RLikely RR+16—
GA-2Runoff 2%
● Sanford BishopINC● Matt Day
98%2%
94%6%
D+18.5D+15.1Solid DLikely DD+8—
GA-3
● Maura Keller● Brian JackINC
2%98%
4%96%
R+16.8R+15.7Solid RSolid RR+301
GA-4
● Hank JohnsonINC● James Duffie
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+59.5D+61.6Solid DSolid DD+54—
GA-5
● Nikema WilliamsINC● John Oscar Salvesen
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+76.4D+79.2Solid DSolid DD+73—
GA-6
● Lucy McBathINC● Kevin Martin
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+56.7D+57.7Solid DSolid DD+50—
GA-7Runoff 2%
● Tony Kozycki● Rich McCormickINC
9%91%
18%82%
R+9.3R+7.2Likely RLikely RR+222
GA-8
● Kelly Esti● Austin ScottINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.7R+23.0Solid RSolid RR+30—
GA-9
● Caitlyn Gegen● Andrew ClydeINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.8R+26.7Solid RSolid RR+34—
GA-10Runoff 2%
● Pam Delancy● Houston Gaines
1%99%
7%93%
R+17.1R+13.3Solid RLikely RR+20—
GA-11Runoff 2%
● Chris Harden● John Cowan
9%91%
16%84%
R+10.3R+8.8Likely RLikely RR+231
GA-12Runoff 9%
● Ceretta Smith● Rick AllenINC
9%91%
25%75%
R+9.6R+6.1Likely RLean RR+13—
GA-13
● Jasmine Clark● Jonathan Chavez
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+47.9D+49.4Solid DSolid DD+42—
GA-14
● Shawn Harris● Clay FullerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.7R+29.8Solid RSolid RR+37—
HI-1
● Ed CaseINC● Adriel Lam
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+38.2D+34.2Solid DSolid DD+26—
HI-2
● Jill TokudaINC● Brenton Awa
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.2D+31.4Solid DSolid DD+24—
IA-1D flipD flip
● Christina Bohannan● Mariannette Miller-MeeksINCAlso: Michael Bridgford (I)
70%30%
70%30%
D+3.2D+3.8Lean DLean DR+71
IA-2Flip riskFlip risk
● Lindsay James● Joe Mitchell
52%48%
42%58%
D+0.3R+1.4Toss-upToss-upR+92
IA-3D flipD flip
● Sarah Trone Garriott● Zach NunnINC
81%19%
72%28%
D+5.4D+4.2Likely DLean DR+41
IA-4
● David Dawson● Chris McGowan
1%99%
1%99%
R+19.0R+21.8Solid RSolid RR+31—
ID-1
● Kaylee Peterson● Russ FulcherINCAlso: Sarah Zabel (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.2R+32.6Solid RSolid RR+444
ID-2
● Ellie Gilbreath● Mike SimpsonINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+21.0R+20.6Solid RSolid RR+27—
IL-1
● Jonathan JacksonINC● Christian Maxwell
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.0D+41.5Solid DSolid DD+35—
IL-2
● Donna Miller● Michael Noack
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.5D+41.8Solid DSolid DD+35—
IL-3
● Delia RamirezINC● Angel Oakley
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+45.5D+43.0Solid DSolid DD+34—
IL-4
● Patty Garcia● Lupe CastilloAlso: Chris Getty (I), Ed Hershey (WCP)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.9D+41.2Solid DSolid DD+341
IL-5
● Mike QuigleyINC● Tommy Hanson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+48.3D+46.7Solid DSolid DD+38—
IL-6
● Sean CastenINC● Niki Conforti
99%1%
95%5%
D+18.9D+16.0Solid DSolid DD+7—
IL-7
● La Shawn Ford● Chad Koppie
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+74.2D+74.5Solid DSolid DD+68—
IL-8
● Melissa Bean● Jennifer Davis
99%1%
97%3%
D+19.9D+17.9Solid DSolid DD+9—
IL-9
● Daniel Biss● John Elleson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+46.6D+46.2Solid DSolid DD+38—
IL-10
● Brad SchneiderINC● Carl Lambrecht
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.0D+31.7Solid DSolid DD+23—
IL-11
● Bill FosterINC● Jeff Walter
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+24.0D+20.8Solid DSolid DD+13—
IL-12
● Julie Fortier● Mike BostINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.1R+36.9Solid RSolid RR+44—
IL-13
● Nikki BudzinskiINC● Jeff Wilson
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+23.1D+18.2Solid DSolid DD+11—
IL-14
● Lauren UnderwoodINC● James Marter
99%1%
94%6%
D+18.7D+14.3Solid DLikely DD+7—
IL-15
● Jennifer Todd● Mary MillerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.3R+32.6Solid RSolid RR+40—
IL-16
● Paul Nolley● Darin LaHoodINC
2%98%
5%95%
R+19.1R+14.6Solid RLikely RR+22—
IL-17
● Eric SorensenINC● Dillan Vancil
99%1%
93%7%
D+17.8D+13.6Solid DLikely DD+6—
IN-1
● Frank MrvanINC● Barb Regnitz
98%2%
87%13%
D+14.9D+9.9Solid DLikely DD+2—
IN-2
● Jamee Decio● Rudy YakymINC
1%99%
3%97%
R+19.2R+18.2Solid RSolid RR+26—
IN-3
● Kelly Thompson● Marlin StutzmanINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+20.2R+22.7Solid RSolid RR+31—
IN-4
● Drew Cox● Jim BairdINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+21.9R+22.4Solid RSolid RR+30—
IN-5
● J. D. Ford● Victoria SpartzINC
9%91%
13%87%
R+7.8R+7.9Likely RLikely RR+171
IN-6
● Cinde Wirth● Jefferson ShreveINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.3R+25.0Solid RSolid RR+33—
IN-7
● André CarsonINC● Patrick McAuley
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+51.4D+50.7Solid DSolid DD+43—
IN-8
● Mary Allen● Mark MessmerINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.8R+27.6Solid RSolid RR+35—
IN-9
● Brad Meyer● Erin HouchinINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+21.4R+22.5Solid RSolid RR+30—
KS-1
● Lauren Reinhold● Tracey MannINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+21.5R+20.6Solid RSolid RR+29—
KS-2
● Don Coover● Derek SchmidtINC
11%89%
12%88%
R+8.5R+10.5Likely RLikely RR+18—
KS-3
● Sharice DavidsINC● Eric Jenkins
99%1%
93%7%
D+18.3D+13.4Solid DLikely DD+5—
KS-4
● Katy Tyndell● Ron EstesINC
2%98%
4%96%
R+16.1R+16.1Solid RSolid RR+24—
KY-1
● Drew Williams● James ComerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.7R+39.9Solid RSolid RR+47—
KY-2
● Megan Wingfield● Brett GuthrieINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.7R+33.7Solid RSolid RR+41—
KY-3
● Morgan McGarveyINC● Maria Rodriquez
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+31.4D+29.0Solid DSolid DD+20—
KY-4
● Melissa Strange● Ed Gallrein
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+27.1R+27.2Solid RSolid RR+35—
KY-5
● Ned Pillersdorf● Hal RogersINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.8R+57.2Solid RSolid RR+63—
KY-6Flip riskFlip risk
● Zach Dembo● Ralph Alvarado
49%51%
46%54%
R+0.2R+0.6Toss-upToss-upR+1410
LA-1
● Lauren Jewett● Steve ScaliseINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.3R+31.4Solid RSolid RR+39—
LA-2
● Troy CarterINC● Peter Williams
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+54.9D+56.7Solid DSolid DD+50—
LA-3
● John Day● Clay HigginsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.5R+29.5Solid RSolid RR+36—
LA-4
● Conrad Cable● Mike JohnsonINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+27.5R+25.7Solid RSolid RR+33—
LA-5
● Patricia Moore● Michael Echols
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+27.7R+26.4Solid RSolid RR+33—
LA-6R flipR flip
● Pat Forbes● Blake Miguez
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.3R+24.1Solid RSolid RR+31—
MA-1
● Richard NealINC● No RepublicanAlso: Nadia Milleron (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+16—
MA-2
● Jim McGovernINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+26—
MA-3
● Lori TrahanINC● Gary Grossi
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.3D+31.5Solid DSolid DD+22—
MA-4
● Jake AuchinclossINC● Thomas Stalcup
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.9D+30.8Solid DSolid DD+22—
MA-5
● Katherine ClarkINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+48—
MA-6
● Dan Koh● Micah Jones
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+35.5D+31.7Solid DSolid DD+23—
MA-7
● Ayanna PressleyINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+67—
MA-8
● Stephen LynchINC● Robert Burke
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+44.9D+38.4Solid DSolid DD+29—
MA-9
● Bill KeatingINC● Tyler MacAllister
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+24.1D+19.1Solid DSolid DD+13—
MD-1
● Dan Schwartz● Andy HarrisINC
3%97%
5%95%
R+12.9R+13.3Solid RSolid RR+171
MD-2
● Johnny OlszewskiINC● Dave Wallace
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+29.5D+26.1Solid DSolid DD+18—
MD-3
● Sarah ElfrethINC● Berney Flowers
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.1D+30.9Solid DSolid DD+22—
MD-4
● Glenn IveyINC● George McDermottAlso: Sam Husseini (G)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+83.3D+85.0Solid DSolid DD+79—
MD-5
● Adrian Boafo● Chris Chaffee
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.2D+42.2Solid DSolid DD+34—
MD-6
● April McClain DelaneyINC● Robin Ficker
99%1%
96%4%
D+19.9D+15.9Solid DSolid DD+8—
MD-7
● Kweisi MfumeINC● Scott Collier
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+68.9D+69.0Solid DSolid DD+62—
MD-8
● Jamie RaskinINC● Cheryl Riley
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+68.9D+68.6Solid DSolid DD+61—
ME-1
● Chellie PingreeINC● Ronald Russell
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+28.8D+24.6Solid DSolid DD+231
ME-2Flip riskR flip
● Matthew Dunlap● Paul LePage
55%45%
36%64%
D+0.6R+2.3Toss-upLean RR+97
MI-1
● Callie Barr● Jack BergmanINC
4%96%
5%95%
R+12.5R+15.4Solid RSolid RR+21—
MI-2
● Ben Ambrose● John MoolenaarINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.7R+24.0Solid RSolid RR+30—
MI-3
● Hillary ScholtenINC● Terri DeBoer
99%1%
95%5%
D+20.1D+15.2Solid DSolid DD+8—
MI-4Flip riskFlip risk
● Sean McCann● Bill HuizengaINC
46%54%
41%59%
R+0.5R+1.5Toss-upToss-upR+54
MI-5
● Christian Vukasovich● Tim WalbergINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+20.2R+20.2Solid RSolid RR+27—
MI-6
● Debbie DingellINC● Heather Smiley
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+35.1D+31.4Solid DSolid DD+25—
MI-7D flipFlip risk
● William Lawrence● Tom BarrettINC
60%40%
57%43%
D+1.5D+1.2Lean DToss-upR+12
MI-8
● Kristen McDonald RivetINC● Thomas Smith
94%6%
75%25%
D+12.0D+5.6Likely DLean DR+1—
MI-9
● Ray Pooley● Lisa McClainINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+27.2R+25.6Solid RSolid RR+32—
MI-10Flip riskFlip risk
● Christina Hines● Mike Bouchard Jr.
55%45%
41%59%
D+0.8R+1.6Toss-upToss-upR+52
MI-11
● Jeremy Moss● Ethan Baker
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+26.7D+24.8Solid DSolid DD+17—
MI-12
● Rashida TlaibINC● James Hooper
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.7D+49.1Solid DSolid DD+42—
MI-13
● Donavan McKinney● T. P. Nykoriak
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+51.8D+50.9Solid DSolid DD+44—
MN-1Flip riskFlip risk
● Jake Johnson● Brad FinstadINC
42%58%
41%59%
R+1.2R+1.6Toss-upToss-upR+124
MN-2
● Matt Little● Eric Pratt
97%3%
93%7%
D+13.2D+10.7Solid DLikely DD+62
MN-3
● Kelly MorrisonINC● Tyler Bass
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+31.6D+28.8Solid DSolid DD+22—
MN-4
● Betty McCollumINC● Paul Wikstrom
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+45.7D+43.9Solid DSolid DD+37—
MN-5
● Ilhan OmarINC● John Nagel
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+67.6D+70.4Solid DSolid DD+64—
MN-6
● Doug Chapin● Tom EmmerINC
4%96%
8%92%
R+11.9R+12.3Solid RLikely RR+20—
MN-7
● Erik Osberg● Michelle FischbachINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.6R+27.5Solid RSolid RR+36—
MN-8
● Trina Swanson● Pete StauberINC
13%87%
21%79%
R+7.6R+7.0Likely RLean RR+14—
MO-1
● Wesley BellINC● Paul Berry
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+66.0D+65.2Solid DSolid DD+59—
MO-2Flip riskFlip risk
● Fred Wellman● Ann WagnerINC
43%57%
49%51%
R+1.1R+0.2Toss-upToss-upR+8—
MO-3
● Bethany Mann● Bob OnderINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+19.0R+19.3Solid RSolid RR+27—
MO-4
● Jordan Herrera● Mark AlfordINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.4R+35.2Solid RSolid RR+42—
MO-5
● Emanuel CleaverINC● Rick Brattin
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.0D+32.5Solid DSolid DD+24—
MO-6
● Josh Smead● Chris Stigall
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.2R+31.6Solid RSolid RR+39—
MO-7
● Missi Hesketh● Eric BurlisonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.4R+35.4Solid RSolid RR+43—
MO-8
● Chris Reichard● Jason SmithINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.9R+47.3Solid RSolid RR+54—
MS-1
● Cliff Johnson● Trent KellyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.5R+29.2Solid RSolid RR+36—
MS-2
● Bennie ThompsonINC● Ron Eller
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+29.0D+29.7Solid DSolid DD+22—
MS-3
● Michael Chiaradio● Michael GuestINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+26.4R+20.5Solid RSolid RR+28—
MS-4
● Jeffrey Hulum III● Mike EzellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.9R+35.7Solid RSolid RR+43—
MT-1
● Sam Forstag● Aaron FlintAlso: Nick Sheedy (L)
31%69%
27%73%
R+2.6R+4.1Lean RLean RR+126
MT-2
● Brian Miller● Troy DowningINCAlso: Michael Eisenhauer (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+25.5R+26.6Solid RSolid RR+301
NC-1
● Don DavisINC● Laurie BuckhoutAlso: Tom Bailey (L)
71%29%
65%35%
D+3.5D+2.9Lean DLean DR+107
NC-2
● Deborah RossINC● Eugene Douglass
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.7D+44.1Solid DSolid DD+35—
NC-3
● Raymond Smith Jr.● Greg MurphyINC
15%85%
25%75%
R+6.2R+4.8Likely RLean RR+131
NC-4
● Valerie FousheeINC● Max Ganorkar
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.4D+54.5Solid DSolid DD+46—
NC-5
● Chuck Hubbard● Virginia FoxxINC
5%95%
12%88%
R+11.3R+10.6Likely RLikely RR+18—
NC-6
● Cyril Jefferson● Addison McDowellINC
7%93%
16%84%
R+10.5R+8.8Likely RLikely RR+17—
NC-7
● Kimberly Hardy● David RouzerINC
9%91%
16%84%
R+8.1R+7.1Likely RLikely RR+132
NC-8
● Colby Watson● Mark HarrisINC
3%97%
12%88%
R+13.1R+10.4Solid RLikely RR+19—
NC-9
● Richard Ojeda● Richard HudsonINC
6%94%
10%90%
R+9.6R+9.1Likely RLikely RR+161
NC-10
● Ashley Bell● Pat HarriganINC
9%91%
16%84%
R+8.5R+7.6Likely RLikely RR+171
NC-11Flip riskFlip risk
● Jamie Ager● Jennifer Balkcom
42%58%
44%56%
R+1.2R+1.0Toss-upToss-upR+101
NC-12
● Alma AdamsINC● Jack Codiga
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+54.5D+56.4Solid DSolid DD+48—
NC-13
● Paul Barringer● Brad KnottINC
9%91%
15%85%
R+9.3R+9.1Likely RLikely RR+17—
NC-14
● Lakesha Womack● Tim MooreINC
16%84%
28%72%
R+6.7R+4.7Likely RLean RR+161
ND-AL
● Trygve Hammer● Julie FedorchakINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+27.5R+28.0Solid RSolid RR+37—
NE-1
● Chris Backemeyer● Mike FloodINC
20%80%
28%72%
R+4.8R+3.9Lean RLean RR+135
NE-2D flipD flip
● Denise Powell● Brinker Harding
99%1%
98%2%
D+14.8D+14.6Solid DSolid DD+52
NE-3
● Becky Stille● Adrian SmithINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.5R+46.0Solid RSolid RR+54—
NH-1
● Stefany Shaheen● Anthony DiLorenzo
93%7%
81%19%
D+9.7D+5.8Likely DLikely DD+31
NH-2
● Maggie GoodlanderINC● Lily Tang Williams
>99%<1%
95%5%
D+19.3D+15.4Solid DSolid DD+58
NJ-1
● Donald NorcrossINC● Damon Galdo
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+31.2D+29.7Solid DSolid DD+20—
NJ-2
● Zack Mullock● Jeff Van DrewINC
22%78%
37%63%
R+5.2R+2.9Lean RLean RR+11—
NJ-3
● Herb ConawayINC● Michael McGuire
99%1%
97%3%
D+19.6D+17.7Solid DSolid DD+10—
NJ-4
● Rachel Peace● Chris SmithINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+23.2R+20.8Solid RSolid RR+28—
NJ-5
● Josh GottheimerINC● Sean Kirrane
98%2%
91%9%
D+20.0D+12.5Solid DLikely DD+4—
NJ-6
● Frank PalloneINC● Hillary Herzig
99%1%
96%4%
D+22.6D+17.0Solid DSolid DD+10—
NJ-7D flipD flip
● Rebecca Bennett● Thomas Kean Jr.INC
86%14%
84%16%
D+6.1D+6.8Likely DLikely DEven2
NJ-8
● Rob MenendezINC● No RepublicanAlso: Craig Honts (SWP), Da'Shone Hughey (I), Aristotle Eliopoulos (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+30—
NJ-9
● Nellie PouINC● Rosie PinoAlso: Terrisa Bukovinac (I)
98%2%
89%11%
D+15.3D+12.0Solid DLikely DD+4—
NJ-10
● LaMonica McIverINC● Carmen Bucco
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+61.5D+61.4Solid DSolid DD+54—
NJ-11
● Analilia MejiaINC● Joe Hathaway
99%1%
98%2%
D+20.0D+19.4Solid DSolid DD+11—
NJ-12
● Adam Hamawy● Gregg Mele
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.3D+34.2Solid DSolid DD+27—
NM-1
● Melanie StansburyINC● Didi Okpareke
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+23.2D+22.9Solid DSolid DD+14—
NM-2
● Gabe VasquezINC● Greg Cunningham
89%11%
82%18%
D+8.2D+6.7Likely DLikely DD+13
NM-3
● Teresa Leger FernándezINC● Martin Zamora
99%1%
98%2%
D+16.0D+15.4Solid DSolid DD+71
NV-1
● Dina TitusINC● Carrie Buck
96%4%
87%13%
D+12.4D+10.4Solid DLikely DD+4—
NV-2
● Teresa Benitez-Thompson● David FlippoAlso: Lynn Chapman (IAP)
13%87%
19%81%
R+6.4R+5.7Likely RLikely RR+143
NV-3
● Susie LeeINC● Martin O'Donnell
95%5%
80%20%
D+13.1D+7.4Likely DLean DD+1—
NV-4
● Steven HorsfordINC● Cody Whipple
96%4%
87%13%
D+13.1D+10.0Solid DLikely DD+4—
NY-1Flip risk
● Chris Gallant● Nick LaLotaINC
35%65%
46%54%
R+2.5R+0.8Lean RToss-upR+81
NY-2
● Patrick Halpin● Andrew GarbarinoINC
23%77%
37%63%
R+4.9R+2.8Lean RLean RR+11—
NY-3
● Tom SuozziINC● Mike LiPetri
95%5%
79%21%
D+13.0D+7.3Solid DLean DEven—
NY-4
● Laura GillenINC● Jeanine Driscoll
98%2%
91%9%
D+16.3D+12.2Solid DLikely DD+5—
NY-5
● Gregory MeeksINC● George Marsh
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+55.7D+55.3Solid DSolid DD+48—
NY-6
● Grace MengINC● Joseph Chou
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+28.1D+21.3Solid DSolid DD+12—
NY-7
● Claire Valdez● Melvin Rivera
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+58.3D+57.9Solid DSolid DD+51—
NY-8
● Hakeem JeffriesINC● Lewis Mizrahi
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+56.0D+54.8Solid DSolid DD+48—
NY-9
● Yvette ClarkeINC● Joel Azumah
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.7D+51.6Solid DSolid DD+44—
NY-10
● Brad Lander● Jennifer Moore
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+70.1D+71.2Solid DSolid DD+64—
NY-11
● Michael DeCillis● Nicole MalliotakisINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+14.5R+13.5Solid RLikely RR+21—
NY-12
● Micah Lasher● Caroline ShinkleAlso: Karen Ortiz (I)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+71.6D+73.7Solid DSolid DD+67—
NY-13
● Darializa Avila Chevalier● Jomo Williams
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+70.5D+72.3Solid DSolid DD+65—
NY-14
● Alexandria Ocasio-CortezINC● Diamant Hysenaj
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+49.9D+46.7Solid DSolid DD+38—
NY-15
● Ritchie TorresINC● Stylo SapaskisAlso: Gonzalo Duran (C)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.1D+62.1Solid DSolid DD+54—
NY-16
● George LatimerINC● Joseph Cinquemani
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+46.3D+42.9Solid DSolid DD+36—
NY-17D flipD flip
● Cait Conley● Mike LawlerINC
84%16%
85%15%
D+5.9D+7.6Likely DLikely DD+34
NY-18
● Pat RyanINC● Jacqueline Auringer
99%1%
97%3%
D+18.2D+15.5Solid DSolid DD+52
NY-19
● Josh RileyINC● Peter Oberacker
96%4%
83%17%
D+13.1D+8.1Solid DLikely DD+2—
NY-20
● Paul TonkoINC● Ralph Ambrosio
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+26.3D+22.9Solid DSolid DD+16—
NY-21
● Blake Gendebien● Anthony Constantino
29%71%
16%84%
R+3.3R+7.6Lean RLikely RR+207
NY-22
● John MannionINC● Kailee Buller
99%1%
96%4%
D+19.4D+16.4Solid DSolid DD+9—
NY-23
● Aaron Gies● Nick LangworthyINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+17.2R+16.8Solid RSolid RR+212
NY-24
● Alissa Ellman● Claudia TenneyINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+17.2R+16.3Solid RSolid RR+23—
NY-25
● Joseph MorelleINC● Virginia McIntyre
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+29.5D+27.5Solid DSolid DD+19—
NY-26
● Tim KennedyINC● Dennis Hannon
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.7D+30.0Solid DSolid DD+21—
OH-1
● Greg LandsmanINC● Eric Conroy
95%5%
85%15%
D+10.2D+7.4Likely DLikely DR+23
OH-2
● Jennifer Mazzuckelli● David TaylorINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.4R+34.8Solid RSolid RR+42—
OH-3
● Joyce BeattyINC● Cleophus Dulaney
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+50.4D+49.8Solid DSolid DD+42—
OH-4
● Joshua Kolasinski● Jim JordanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.3R+34.8Solid RSolid RR+43—
OH-5
● Brian Shaver● Bob LattaINC
2%98%
5%95%
R+15.0R+15.1Solid RLikely RR+23—
OH-6
● Elizabeth Kirtley● Michael RulliINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.7R+25.7Solid RSolid RR+34—
OH-7D flipD flip
● Brian Poindexter● Max MillerINC
66%34%
72%28%
D+3.1D+4.7Lean DLean DR+115
OH-8
● Vanessa Enoch● Warren DavidsonINC
14%86%
20%80%
R+7.3R+7.2Likely RLean RR+16—
OH-9Flip riskFlip risk
● Marcy KapturINC● Derek Merrin
59%41%
44%56%
D+1.3R+0.9Toss-upToss-upR+102
OH-10
● Kristina Knickerbocker● Mike TurnerINCAlso: Thomas McMasters (L)
23%77%
27%73%
R+5.1R+5.1Lean RLean RR+73
OH-11
● Shontel BrownINC● Mike Kirchner
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.3D+63.2Solid DSolid DD+56—
OH-12
● Jerrad Christian● Troy BaldersonINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.4R+22.5Solid RSolid RR+30—
OH-13
● Emilia SykesINC● Carey Coleman
98%2%
91%9%
D+15.5D+12.3Solid DLikely DD+4—
OH-14
● Maria Jukic● David JoyceINC
4%96%
9%91%
R+12.6R+11.7Solid RLikely RR+20—
OH-15
● Don Leonard● Mike CareyINCAlso: Brennan Barrington (L)
35%65%
36%64%
R+2.2R+2.3Lean RLean RR+93
OK-1
● John Croisant● Mark Tedford
5%95%
5%95%
R+12.1R+15.6Solid RSolid RR+23—
OK-2
● Brandon Wade● Josh BrecheenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.7R+49.5Solid RSolid RR+55—
OK-3
● Suzie Byrd● Frank LucasINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.0R+39.4Solid RSolid RR+45—
OK-4
● Mitchell Jacob● Tom ColeINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.8R+26.0Solid RSolid RR+33—
OK-5
● Jena Nelson● Stephanie BiceINC
3%97%
5%95%
R+11.6R+11.9Solid RSolid RR+201
OR-1
● Suzanne BonamiciINC● Barbara Kahl
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+44.5D+40.6Solid DSolid DD+39—
OR-2
● Chris Beck● Cliff BentzINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.9R+22.6Solid RSolid RR+27—
OR-3
● Maxine DexterINC● Loran Ayles
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.0D+50.3Solid DSolid DD+48—
OR-4
● Val HoyleINC● Monique DeSpain
99%1%
94%6%
D+17.7D+14.6Solid DLikely DD+13—
OR-5
● Janelle BynumINC● Patti Adair
97%3%
90%10%
D+13.9D+11.5Solid DLikely DD+9—
OR-6
● Andrea SalinasINC● David Russ
99%1%
95%5%
D+20.7D+15.0Solid DLikely DD+12—
PA-1D flipD flip
● Bob Harvie● Brian FitzpatrickINC
60%40%
68%32%
D+1.6D+3.6Lean DLean DD+16
PA-2
● Brendan BoyleINC● Jessica Arriaga
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+48.0D+45.8Solid DSolid DD+38—
PA-3
● Chris Rabb● No RepublicanAlso: Dennis Mahoney (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+79—
PA-4
● Madeleine DeanINC● Aurora Stuski
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+26.7D+25.3Solid DSolid DD+17—
PA-5
● Mary Gay ScanlonINC● Nicholas Manganaro
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.2D+38.9Solid DSolid DD+30—
PA-6
● Chrissy HoulahanINC● Marty Young
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+23.4D+21.1Solid DSolid DD+12—
PA-7D flipD flip
● Bob Brooks● Ryan MackenzieINC
82%18%
79%21%
D+5.4D+5.7Likely DLean DR+22
PA-8Flip riskFlip risk
● Paige Cognetti● Rob BresnahanINC
53%47%
46%54%
D+0.5R+0.6Toss-upToss-upR+73
PA-9
● Rachel Wallace● Dan MeuserINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.4R+29.9Solid RSolid RR+38—
PA-10D flipD flip
● Janelle Stelson● Scott PerryINC
72%28%
66%34%
D+3.4D+2.8Lean DLean DR+54
PA-11
● Nancy Mannion● Lloyd SmuckerINC
4%96%
8%92%
R+12.8R+12.9Solid RLikely RR+22—
PA-12
● Summer LeeINC● James Hayes
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+28.5D+28.7Solid DSolid DD+19—
PA-13
● Beth Farnham● John JoyceINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.8R+38.2Solid RSolid RR+46—
PA-14
● Alan Bradstock● Guy ReschenthalerINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.4R+25.1Solid RSolid RR+33—
PA-15
● Ray Bilger● Glenn ThompsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.8R+30.6Solid RSolid RR+38—
PA-16
● Justin Wagner● Mike KellyINC
1%99%
6%94%
R+16.3R+14.4Solid RLikely RR+22—
PA-17
● Chris DeluzioINC● Tony Guy
99%1%
94%6%
D+17.3D+14.5Solid DLikely DD+6—
RI-1
● Gabe AmoINC● Kellie KeenanAlso: Pedro DeSouza (I)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+35.5D+33.2Solid DSolid DD+241
RI-2
● Seth MagazinerINC● Vic Mellor
99%1%
98%2%
D+19.5D+15.9Solid DSolid DD+91
SC-1Flip risk
● Nancy Lacore● Jenny Costa HoneycuttAlso: Bill Reeside (L)
39%61%
43%57%
R+1.6R+1.2Lean RToss-upR+125
SC-2
● Zyon Khalifa● Joe WilsonINC
12%88%
26%74%
R+8.0R+5.5Likely RLean RR+14—
SC-3
● Eunice Lehmacher● Sheri BiggsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.7R+35.3Solid RSolid RR+42—
SC-4
● Courtney McClain● William TimmonsINC
3%98%
7%93%
R+14.4R+13.8Solid RLikely RR+22—
SC-5
● Mallory Dittmer● Wes Climer
2%98%
6%94%
R+15.0R+14.6Solid RLikely RR+22—
SC-6
● Jim ClyburnINC● John Peterson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.3D+32.3Solid DSolid DD+25—
SC-7
● John Vincent● Russell FryINC
1%99%
3%97%
R+16.2R+15.2Solid RSolid RR+251
SD-AL
● Nikki Gronli● Marty Jackley
2%98%
3%97%
R+15.6R+15.4Solid RSolid RR+301
TN-1
● Kristi Burke● Diana HarshbargerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.9R+51.4Solid RSolid RR+58—
TN-2
● Michaela Barnett● Tim BurchettINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.6R+25.5Solid RSolid RR+33—
TN-3
● Anna Golladay● Chuck FleischmannINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.7R+28.4Solid RSolid RR+35—
TN-4
● Victoria Broderick● Scott DesJarlaisINC
3%97%
5%95%
R+13.7R+15.0Solid RLikely RR+22—
TN-5
● Chaz Molder● Charlie Hatcher
5%95%
4%96%
R+9.9R+12.3Likely RSolid RR+202
TN-6
● Mike Croley● Johnny Garrett
1%99%
3%97%
R+17.2R+18.4Solid RSolid RR+26—
TN-7
● Darden Copeland● Matt Van EppsINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+13.4R+13.9Solid RLikely RR+21—
TN-8
● Heidi Kuhn● David KustoffINC
6%94%
9%91%
R+11.1R+12.1Likely RLikely RR+19—
TN-9R flipR flip
● Justin Pearson● Brent Taylor
6%94%
6%94%
R+9.6R+11.3Likely RLikely RR+201
TX-1
● Yolanda Prince● Nathaniel MoranINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.9R+41.6Solid RSolid RR+48—
TX-2
● Shaun Finnie● Steve Toth
2%98%
3%97%
R+13.8R+15.1Solid RSolid RR+231
TX-3
● Evan Hunt● Keith SelfINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+13.7R+14.7Solid RLikely RR+22—
TX-4
● Jason Pearce● Pat FallonINC
1%99%
5%95%
R+16.5R+15.1Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-5
● Chelsey Hockett● Lance GoodenINC
4%96%
10%90%
R+12.9R+11.7Solid RLikely RR+19—
TX-6
● Danny Minton● Jake EllzeyINC
1%99%
6%94%
R+17.0R+14.8Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-7
● Lizzie FletcherINC● Alexander Hale
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.3D+34.8Solid DSolid DD+26—
TX-8
● Laura Jones● Jessica Hart Steinmann
1%99%
3%97%
R+18.5R+17.9Solid RSolid RR+25—
TX-9
● Leticia Gutierrez● Alex Mealer
9%91%
16%84%
R+9.0R+7.7Likely RLikely RR+172
TX-10
● Caitlin Rourk● Chris Gober
2%98%
4%96%
R+12.3R+13.1Solid RSolid RR+201
TX-11
● Claire Reynolds● August PflugerINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.4R+25.5Solid RSolid RR+33—
TX-12
● Angela Rodriguez Prilliman● Craig GoldmanINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+13.8R+14.1Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-13
● Mark Nair● Ronny JacksonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.3R+39.0Solid RSolid RR+46—
TX-14
● Thurman Bartie● Randy WeberINC
2%98%
4%96%
R+16.3R+16.3Solid RSolid RR+24—
TX-15Flip riskD flip
● Bobby Pulido● Monica De La CruzINC
54%46%
66%34%
D+0.8D+3.5Toss-upLean DR+135
TX-16
● Veronica EscobarINC● Adam Bauman
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.0D+34.7Solid DSolid DD+22—
TX-17
● Casey Shepard● Pete SessionsINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+13.7R+12.9Solid RLikely RR+20—
TX-18
● Christian MenefeeINC● Ronald Whitfield
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.3D+65.5Solid DSolid DD+58—
TX-19
● Kyle Rable● Tom Sell
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.6R+43.8Solid RSolid RR+51—
TX-20
● Joaquin CastroINC● Edgardo Rafael Baez
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.9D+41.5Solid DSolid DD+32—
TX-21
● Kristin Hook● Mark Teixeira
6%94%
9%91%
R+11.0R+12.3Likely RLikely RR+20—
TX-22
● Marquette Greene-Scott● Trever NehlsINC
3%97%
7%93%
R+13.5R+13.7Solid RLikely RR+21—
TX-23
● Katy Padilla Stout● Brandon Herrera
41%59%
31%69%
R+1.6R+4.2Toss-upLean RR+131
TX-24
● Kevin Burge● Beth Van DuyneINC
16%84%
25%75%
R+6.8R+6.0Likely RLean RR+15—
TX-25
● Dione Sims● Roger WilliamsINC
2%98%
6%94%
R+15.5R+14.6Solid RLikely RR+22—
TX-26
● Steven Shook● Brandon GillINC
1%99%
5%95%
R+17.3R+15.1Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-27
● Tanya Lloyd● Michael CloudINC
3%97%
7%93%
R+13.5R+13.1Solid RLikely RR+21—
TX-28
● Henry CuellarINC● Tano Tijerina
90%10%
89%11%
D+10.1D+11.1Likely DLikely DR+53
TX-29
● Sylvia GarciaINC● Martha Fierro
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.9D+43.0Solid DSolid DD+34—
TX-30
● Frederick Haynes III● Everett Jackson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+57.2D+59.0Solid DSolid DD+51—
TX-31
● Justin Early● John CarterINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+13.9R+12.9Solid RLikely RR+20—
TX-32
● Dan Barrios● Jace Yarbrough
16%84%
20%80%
R+7.0R+7.4Likely RLikely RR+15—
TX-33
● Colin Allred● Patrick Gillespie
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+45.4D+45.7Solid DSolid DD+37—
TX-34
● Vicente GonzalezINC● Eric Flores
75%25%
74%26%
D+4.7D+5.1Lean DLean DR+73
TX-35
● Johnny Garcia● Carlos De La Cruz
40%60%
40%60%
R+1.8R+2.0Lean RToss-upR+81
TX-36
● Rhonda Hart● Brian BabinINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+17.6R+16.6Solid RSolid RR+24—
TX-37
● Greg CasarINC● Lauren Peña
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.8D+66.4Solid DSolid DD+59—
TX-38
● Melissa McDonough● Jon Bonck
5%95%
10%90%
R+12.6R+11.8Solid RLikely RR+20—
UT-1
● Ben McAdams● Riley Owen
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.1D+42.6Solid DSolid DD+251
UT-2
● Peter Crosby● Blake MooreINC
5%95%
11%89%
R+15.1R+12.1Solid RLikely RR+303
UT-3
● Kent Udell● Celeste MaloyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.8R+28.1Solid RSolid RR+431
UT-4
● Jonny Larsen● Mike KennedyINC
1%99%
3%97%
R+20.0R+16.6Solid RSolid RR+341
VA-1Flip riskD flip
● Shannon Taylor● Rob WittmanINC
54%46%
62%38%
D+0.5D+1.9Toss-upLean DR+53
VA-2D flipD flip
● Elaine Luria● Jen KiggansINC
78%22%
80%20%
D+4.5D+5.9Lean DLean DEven2
VA-3
● Bobby ScottINC● Edwin Rivera
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+44.4D+44.1Solid DSolid DD+36—
VA-4
● Jennifer McClellanINC● Robert Murray
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.3D+42.1Solid DSolid DD+34—
VA-5
● Tom Perriello● John McGuireINC
16%84%
19%81%
R+5.6R+5.6Likely RLikely RR+123
VA-6
● Beth Macy● Ben ClineINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+20.9R+22.3Solid RSolid RR+241
VA-7
● Eugene VindmanINC● Doug OllivantAlso: Randall Terry (I)
97%3%
91%9%
D+15.4D+11.9Solid DLikely DD+4—
VA-8
● Don BeyerINC● Tony Sabio
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+58.9D+60.5Solid DSolid DD+53—
VA-9
● Joy Powers● Morgan GriffithINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.1R+37.9Solid RSolid RR+44—
VA-10
● Suhas SubramanyamINC● Dave Beckwith
99%1%
98%2%
D+20.8D+19.7Solid DSolid DD+11—
VA-11
● James WalkinshawINC● Arthur Purves
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+44.7D+45.7Solid DSolid DD+37—
VT-AL
● Becca BalintINC● Gerald Malloy
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.3D+33.0Solid DSolid DD+345
WA-1
● Suzan DelBeneINC● Mary Silva
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.5D+36.0Solid DSolid DD+31—
WA-2
● Rick LarsenINC● Edwin Feller
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.5D+29.6Solid DSolid DD+25—
WA-3Flip risk
● Marie Gluesenkamp PerezINC● John Braun
76%24%
59%41%
D+4.2D+1.5Lean DToss-upR+37
WA-4
● John Duresky● Amanda McKinney
2%98%
8%92%
R+14.7R+12.9Solid RLikely RR+20—
WA-5
● Carmela Conroy● Michael BaumgartnerINC
10%90%
21%79%
R+7.6R+5.8Likely RLean RR+111
WA-6
● Emily RandallINC● Teresa Fox
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+24.9D+24.0Solid DSolid DD+19—
WA-7
● Pramila JayapalINC● Nirav Sheth
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+78.6D+82.4Solid DSolid DD+77—
WA-8
● Kim SchrierINC● Spencer Meline
98%2%
92%8%
D+15.9D+12.5Solid DLikely DD+7—
WA-9
● Adam SmithINC● Doug Basler
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.7D+48.8Solid DSolid DD+44—
WA-10
● Marilyn StricklandINC● Chris Chung
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+26.1D+24.2Solid DSolid DD+19—
WI-1Flip riskFlip risk
● Mitchell Berman● Bryan SteilINC
49%51%
47%53%
R+0.1R+0.4Toss-upToss-upR+44
WI-2
● Mark PocanINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+42—
WI-3Flip riskFlip risk
● Rebecca Cooke● Derrick Van OrdenINC
57%43%
50%50%
D+1.0EvenToss-upToss-upR+74
WI-4
● Gwen MooreINC● Tim Rogers
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+61.0D+60.4Solid DSolid DD+53—
WI-5
● Andrew Beck● Scott FitzgeraldINC
2%98%
5%95%
R+15.5R+14.9Solid RLikely RR+23—
WI-6
● Brad Smith● Glenn GrothmanINCAlso: Michael Thurow (I)
4%96%
6%94%
R+12.3R+13.1Solid RLikely RR+171
WI-7
● Fred Clark● Michael Alfonso
5%95%
5%95%
R+11.7R+15.7Likely RSolid RR+22—
WI-8
● Rick Crosson● Tony WiedINC
13%87%
15%85%
R+7.7R+8.9Likely RLikely RR+16—
WV-1
● Vince George● Carol MillerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.4R+35.9Solid RSolid RR+44—
WV-2
● Ace Parsi● Riley MooreINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+29.9R+31.6Solid RSolid RR+40—
WY-AL
● Lisa Kinney● Chuck Gray
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.0R+39.1Solid RSolid RR+44—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.