North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Hudson is clearly favored to win: Hudson wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Hudson is clearly favored to win: Hudson wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Former West Virginia state senator (2017–2019), nominee for West Virginia's 3rd congressional district in 2018, candidate for president in 2020, and candidate for U.S. Senate in West Virginia in 2020
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Incumbent U.S. representative
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Ojeda | Hudson | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners for Ojeda's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 400 LV | 42 | 46 | R+4 | R+10.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 3, 2026.
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.