Democratic
Brad Meyer
Retired civil engineer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $105.5K
- From individuals
- $94.2K
- Spent
- $81.9K
- Cash on hand
- $17.8K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Indiana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Indiana's 9th District
Houchin is very likely to win: Houchin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Meyer (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Houchin (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+21.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+13
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Houchin is very likely to win: Houchin wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Meyer (D)
1%
chance of winning
Houchin (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+22.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Erin Houchin
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $395.9K
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.06 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.05 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.05 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 766,094
- People per km²
- 49
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 65%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 3%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
345,738 votes · R+32.6✓ Erin Houchin (R)64.5%
Timothy "tim" Peck (D)32.8%
Russell "russ" Brooksbank (L)2.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
347,221 two-party votes · R+30.5 · R+29.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.3%
Kamala Harris (D)34.7%
2022
225,276 votes · R+30.8✓ Erin Houchin (R)63.6%
Matthew Fyfe (D)33.6%
Tonya L Millis (L)2.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
359,038 votes · R+28.9✓ Trey Hollingsworth (R)61.8%
Andy Ruff (D)34.1%
Tonya L Millis (L)4.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
373,391 two-party votes · R+28.6 · R+33.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.3%
Joe Biden (D)35.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
261,984 votes · R+12.1✓ Trey Hollingsworth (R)56.1%
Liz Watson (D)43.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
322,175 votes · R+14.2✓ Trey Hollingsworth (R)52.7%
Shelli Yoder (D)39.5%
Russell Brooksbank (L)5.4%
Trey Collingsworth (R)1.5%
Lynn Coleman (D)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
331,590 two-party votes · R+31.2 · R+33.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.4%