DemocraticIncumbent
Bill Keating
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $534.9K
- From individuals
- $304.2K
- Spent
- $689.2K
- Cash on hand
- $511.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Massachusetts › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts's 9th District
Keating is very likely to win: Keating wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Keating (D)
>99%
chance of winning
MacAllister (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+24.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+16 to D+33
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Keating is very likely to win: Keating wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Keating (D)
98%
chance of winning
MacAllister (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+19.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+8 to D+31
- Partisan lean
- D+13
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tyler MacAllister
Former Mattapoisett selectman
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $212.9K
- From individuals
- $207.8K
- Spent
- $160.6K
- Cash on hand
- $52.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.42 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.76 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.76 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 790,602
- People per km²
- 93
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 43%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 3%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
445,753 votes · D+13.0✓ William R. Keating (D)56.5%
Dan Sullivan (R)43.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
450,280 two-party votes · D+10.9 · D+12.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)55.5%
Donald Trump (R)44.5%
2022
334,170 votes · D+18.4✓ William R Keating (D)59.2%
Jesse G Brown (R)40.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
424,240 votes · D+25.6✓ William R Keating (D)61.3%
Helen Brady (R)36.4%
Michael Manley (I)2.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
456,453 two-party votes · D+18.5 · D+14.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)59.3%
Donald Trump (R)40.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
323,810 votes · D+18.8✓ Bill Keating (D)59.4%
Peter D Tedeschi (R)40.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
379,484 votes · D+24.7✓ William R Keating (D)55.8%
Mark C Alliegro (R)33.7%
Paul J Harrington (I)6.9%
Christopher D Cataldo (I)2.2%
Anna Grace Raduc (I)1.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
391,878 two-party votes · D+10.7 · D+8.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)55.4%
Donald Trump (R)44.6%