Nevada › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Flippo is clearly favored to win: Flippo wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Flippo is clearly favored to win: Flippo wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Chief of staff to Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford and former majority leader of the Nevada Assembly (2016–2022) from the 27th district (2010–2022)
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Financial advisor, former Air Force lieutenant colonel, and candidate for Nevada's 4th congressional district in 2024 (previously ran in the 4th district)
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Money: no FEC filings matched.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Benitez-Thompson | Flippo | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO for the Nevada Alliance, which supports Benitez-ThompsonD-sponsored | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 500 LV | 38 | 37 | D+1 | R+3.8 |
| Strategies 360 for Benitez-Thompson's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 22–Aug 26 | 400 LV | 42 | 45 | R+3 | R+5.7 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Jul 9–Jul 12 | 350 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | D+3.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 3, 2026.
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.