Democratic
Brian Miller
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $30.7K
- From individuals
- $23.3K
- Spent
- $27.1K
- Cash on hand
- $2.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Montana › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana's 2nd District
Downing is very likely to win: Downing wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Downing (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+25.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+34 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 1in our database
Downing is very likely to win: Downing wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Miller (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Downing (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+36 to R+18
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Troy Downing
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $1.5M
- Spent
- $2M
- Cash on hand
- $841K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Independent
Michael Eisenhauer
Cardiologist
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $296.8K
- From individuals
- $44.2K
- Spent
- $161.7K
- Cash on hand
- $135.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.75 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.44 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.44 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Miller | Downing | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers University Eagleton Institute of Politics for the Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 470 RV | 26 | 48 | R+22 | R+28.7 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 7, 2026.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 551,934
- People per km²
- 2
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 57%of adults
- White 82%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 12%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
275,424 votes · R+32.0✓ Troy Downing (R)66.0%
John B. Driscoll (D)34.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
271,978 two-party votes · R+30.5 · R+29.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.3%
Kamala Harris (D)34.7%
2022
215,672 votes · R+47.4✓ Matthew M Rosendale, Sr (R)56.6%
Gary Buchanan (I)21.9%
Penny Ronning (D)20.2%
Sam Rankin (L)1.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
293,619 two-party votes · R+27.9 · R+32.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Joe Biden (D)36.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
237,003 two-party votes · R+32.3 · R+34.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)66.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)33.9%