Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California's 48th District
Top twoProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (92%).
Wilpert is clearly favored to win: Wilpert wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Wilpert (D)
92%
chance of winning
Desmond (R)
8%
- Average margin
- D+10.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (89%).
Wilpert is clearly favored to win: Wilpert wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Wilpert (D)
89%
chance of winning
Desmond (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+11.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+23
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Marni von Wilpert
San Diego city councilor from the 5th district (2020–present) (previously ran for state senate)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $825K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Jim Desmond
San Diego County supervisor from the 5th district (2019–present) (previously ran in the 49th district)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $3M
- From individuals
- $2.4M
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.55 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 783,227
- People per km²
- 101
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 28%of adults
- White 41%
- Hispanic 42%
- Black 4%
- Asian 7%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
359,883 votes · R+18.6✓ Darrell Issa (R)59.3%
Stephen Houlahan (D)40.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
319,813 two-party votes · D+3.2 · D+4.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.6%
Donald Trump (R)48.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
256,742 votes · R+20.7✓ Darrell Issa (R)60.4%
Stephen Houlahan (D)39.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
395,100 votes · R+2.1✓ Michelle Steel (R)51.1%
Harley Rouda (D)48.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
334,901 two-party votes · D+7.0 · D+2.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.5%
Donald Trump (R)46.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
294,736 votes · D+7.1✓ Harley Rouda (D)53.6%
Dana Rohrabacher (R)46.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
306,416 votes · R+16.6✓ Dana Rohrabacher (R)58.3%
Suzanne Savary (D)41.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
245,785 two-party votes · R+0.5 · R+2.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.7%
Also on the ballot in California
Neighboring districts
CA-23Tessa Lynn HodgeJay Obernolte96%Rep.88%Rep. CA-25Raul RuizJoe Males98%Dem.95%Dem. CA-39Mark TakanoSteve Manos>99%Dem.97%Dem. CA-40—Young KimR vs R>99%Rep.>99%Rep. CA-49Mike LevinArmen Kurdian>99%Dem.98%Dem. CA-50Scott PetersSteve Cohen>99%Dem.99%Dem. CA-51Sara JacobsRicardo Cabrera>99%Dem.99%Dem. CA-52Juan VargasJeff Belle>99%Dem.99%Dem.