Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
California's 22nd District
Top twoProjected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (75%).
Villegas is favored to win: Villegas wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Villegas (D)
75%
chance of winning
Valadao (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+5.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- 1in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (73%).
Villegas is favored to win: Villegas wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Villegas (D)
73%
chance of winning
Valadao (R)
27%
- Average margin
- D+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- D+3
- Polls
- 1in our database
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Randy Villegas
Visalia school board trustee
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $2.6M
- From individuals
- $2.4M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $571.8K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
David Valadao
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.9M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $1.6M
- Cash on hand
- $3.4M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Pacific adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.87 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Villegas | Valadao | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jun 15–Jun 21 | 800 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | R+0.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jun 21, 2026.
The district
Lean D+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 737,766
- People per km²
- 61
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 11%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 14%
- Hispanic 74%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
167,055 votes · R+6.8✓ David G. Valadao (R)53.4%
Rudy Salas (D)46.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
165,124 two-party votes · R+1.9 · R+0.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Kamala Harris (D)49.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
102,852 votes · R+3.0✓ David G Valadao (R)51.5%
Rudy Salas (D)48.5%
2022 runoffEarlier district lines
115,421 votes · R+24.3✓ Conway, Connie (R)62.1%
Hubbard, Lourin (D)37.9%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
87,105 votes · R+28.8✓ Conway, Connie (R)35.1%
Hubbard, Lourin (D)19.4%
Stoll, Matt (R)16.2%
Garcia, Eric (D)14.4%
Maher, Michael (R)8.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
315,139 votes · R+8.5✓ Devin Nunes (R)54.2%
Phil Arballo (D)45.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
183,117 two-party votes · D+17.3 · D+12.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)58.7%
Donald Trump (R)41.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
138,874 two-party votes · D+21.6 · D+19.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)60.8%
Donald Trump (R)39.2%
Also on the ballot in California
Neighboring districts
CA-5Michael MasudaTom McClintock97%Rep.92%Rep. CA-13Adam GrayKevin Lincoln95%Dem.85%Dem. CA-18Zoe LofgrenShane Lewis>99%Dem.>99%Dem. CA-19Jimmy PanettaPeter Coe Verbica>99%Dem.>99%Dem. CA-20Sandra Van ScotterVince Fong>99%Rep.99%Rep. CA-21Jim CostaKyle Kirkland99%Dem.94%Dem. CA-24Salud CarbajalBob Smith>99%Dem.>99%Dem.