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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 24th District
Gilbert is very likely to win: Gilbert wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gilbert (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Brown (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+52.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+42 to D+63
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gilbert is very likely to win: Gilbert wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Gilbert (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Brown (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+51.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+39 to D+65
- Partisan lean
- D+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Oliver Gilbert
Miami-Dade County commissioner (2020–present)
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $1M
- Cash on hand
- $269.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Te Mayonna Brown
Entrepreneur and former candidate for Illinois's 11th congressional district
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $313.4K
- From individuals
- $7.3K
- Spent
- $130.2K
- Cash on hand
- $183.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.87 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 814,649
- People per km²
- 2,663
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 6%of adults
- White 10%
- Hispanic 43%
- Black 42%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
286,248 votes · D+36.5✓ Frederica S. Wilson (D)68.1%
Jesus Gabriel Navarro (R)31.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
273,700 two-party votes · D+38.8 · D+40.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)69.4%
Donald Trump (R)30.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
185,891 votes · D+43.6✓ Frederica S Wilson (D)71.8%
Jesus G Navarro (R)28.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
290,007 votes · D+57.5✓ Frederica S Wilson (D)75.5%
Lavern Spicer (R)20.4%
Christine Alexandria Olivo (I)4.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
324,356 two-party votes · D+56.8 · D+52.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)78.4%
Donald Trump (R)21.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
1 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Frederica Wilson (D)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
300,449 two-party votes · D+71.6 · D+69.4 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)85.8%
Donald Trump (R)14.2%
2014 Earlier district lines
149,918 votes · D+78.9✓ Frederica S Wilson (D)86.2%
Dufirston Julio Neree (R)10.2%
Luis E Fernandez (I)3.7%