Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Illinois's 9th District

Biss is very likely to win: Biss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Biss (D)

>99%

chance of winning

Elleson (R)

<1%

Average margin: D+46.6
80% of outcomes: D+38 to D+56
Partisan lean: D+38
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Biss is very likely to win: Biss wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Biss (D)

>99%

chance of winning

Elleson (R)

<1%

Average margin: D+46.2
80% of outcomes: D+35 to D+58
Partisan lean: D+38
Polls: No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Daniel Biss

Mayor of Evanston (2021–present), state senator from the 9th district (2013–2019), and candidate for governor in 2018

Experience: State legislature

Raised: $3.4M
From individuals: $3.1M
Spent: $2.8M
Cash on hand: $568.4K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

John Elleson

Pastor and nominee for this district in 2018

Experience: No elected office

Money: no FEC filings matched.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office: 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Midwest adjustment: +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs

Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)	0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)	1.94
Elected-experience edge	0.67
First-term incumbent	0
Seat's last result vs. expectation	1.15
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation	0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean D+38: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population: 759,805
People per km²: 1,704
Adults with a B.A.+: 56%
White, no degree: 24%of adults

White 59%
Hispanic 14%
Black 8%
Asian 14%
Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

338,828 votes · D+36.8

✓ Janice D. Schakowsky (D)68.4%

Seth Alan Cohen (R)31.6%

2024 President Vote in this district

342,998 two-party votes · D+36.9 · D+38.4 vs. the nation

✓ Kamala Harris (D)68.5%

Donald Trump (R)31.5%

2022

250,530 votes · D+43.4

✓ Janice D Schakowsky (D)71.7%

MAXWELL âMAXâ RICE (R)28.3%

2020 Earlier district lines

369,291 votes · D+42.0

✓ Janice D Schakowsky (D)71.0%

Sargis Sangari (R)29.0%

2020 President Vote in this district

373,337 two-party votes · D+42.0 · D+37.5 vs. the nation

✓ Joe Biden (D)71.0%

Donald Trump (R)29.0%

2018 Earlier district lines

290,351 votes · D+47.0

✓ Janice D Schakowsky (D)73.5%

John D Elleson (R)26.5%

2016 Earlier district lines

327,805 votes · D+33.0

✓ Janice D Schakowsky (D)66.3%

Joan McCarthy Lasonde (R)33.4%

2016 President Vote in this district

321,406 two-party votes · D+45.1 · D+42.9 vs. the nation

✓ Hillary Clinton (D)72.5%

Donald Trump (R)27.5%

Also on the ballot in Illinois

U.S. SenateJuliana StrattonDon Tracy98%Dem.97%Dem. GovernorJB PritzkerDarren Bailey99%Dem.99%Dem.

Neighboring districts

IL-5Mike QuigleyTommy Hanson>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-8Melissa BeanJennifer Davis99%Dem.97%Dem. IL-10Brad SchneiderCarl Lambrecht>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-11Bill FosterJeff Walter>99%Dem.98%Dem.