Democratic
JoAnna Mendoza
Former veteran services representative for U.S. Representative Tom O'Halleran
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $7.4M
- From individuals
- $5.9M
- Spent
- $4.1M
- Cash on hand
- $3.3M
Money: FEC, through Jul 1, 2026.
Arizona › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona's 6th District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (63%).
Mendoza is favored to win: Mendoza wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Mendoza (D)
63%
chance of winning
Ciscomani (R)
37%
- Average margin
- D+1.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+10
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- 3in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (67%).
Mendoza is favored to win: Mendoza wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Mendoza (D)
67%
chance of winning
Ciscomani (R)
33%
- Average margin
- D+3.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+7 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+1
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Juan Ciscomani
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $7.5M
- From individuals
- $2.9M
- Spent
- $6.8M
- Cash on hand
- $926.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.69 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.69 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Mendoza | Ciscomani | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts for House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidatesD-sponsored | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 | R+2.1 |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America, an organization linked to the Republican Study CommitteeR-sponsored | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 | D+13.4 |
| Public Policy Polling for the House Majority PAC, which supports MendozaD-sponsored | Oct 14–Oct 15 | 581 LV | 42 | 41 | D+1 | D+0.9 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jun 11, 2026.
The district
Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 817,962
- People per km²
- 23
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 39%
- White, no degree
- 38%of adults
- White 61%
- Hispanic 26%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
431,727 votes · R+2.6✓ Juan Ciscomani (R)49.9%
Kirsten Engel (D)47.4%
Athena Eastwood (G)2.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
435,243 two-party votes · R+0.8 · D+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Kamala Harris (D)49.6%
2022
349,771 votes · R+1.5✓ Juan Ciscomani (R)50.7%
Kirsten Engel (D)49.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
417,427 votes · R+4.3✓ David Schweikert (R)52.2%
Hiral Tipirneni (D)47.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
430,117 two-party votes · R+0.5 · R+5.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.3%
Joe Biden (D)49.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
313,996 votes · R+10.4✓ David Schweikert (R)55.1%
Anita Malik (D)44.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
325,126 votes · R+24.3✓ David Schweikert (R)62.0%
W John Williamson (D)37.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
324,541 two-party votes · R+5.4 · R+7.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%