DemocraticIncumbent
Bobby Scott
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $688.4K
- From individuals
- $380.6K
- Spent
- $709.2K
- Cash on hand
- $145.9K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 3rd District
Scott is very likely to win: Scott wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Scott (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rivera (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+35 to D+54
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Scott is very likely to win: Scott wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Scott (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Rivera (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+44.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+32 to D+56
- Partisan lean
- D+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Edwin Rivera
U.S. Army veteran
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $14.8K
- From individuals
- $6K
- Spent
- $8.7K
- Cash on hand
- $6.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.34 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 6.56 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 6.56 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 779,952
- People per km²
- 673
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 30%
- White, no degree
- 27%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 43%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
314,397 votes · D+40.2✓ Robert C. "bobby" Scott (D)70.0%
John Sitka III (R)29.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
315,407 two-party votes · D+35.2 · D+36.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)67.6%
Donald Trump (R)32.4%
2022
207,778 votes · D+34.8✓ ROBERT C âBOBBYâ SCOTT (D)67.2%
Terry T Namkung (R)32.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
341,476 votes · D+37.0✓ Robert C "bobby" Scott (D)68.3%
John W Collick Jr (R)31.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
337,405 two-party votes · D+39.3 · D+34.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)69.7%
Donald Trump (R)30.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
217,792 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Robert C "bobby" Scott (D)91.2%
Writein (—)8.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
312,371 votes · D+33.7✓ Robert C "bobby" Scott (D)66.7%
M L "marty" Williams (R)33.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
360,238 two-party votes · D+36.1 · D+33.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)68.1%
Donald Trump (R)31.9%