Democratic
Sean McCann
State senator from the 19th district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $4.3M
- From individuals
- $3.7M
- Spent
- $3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Michigan › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan's 4th District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
McCann (D)
46%
chance of winning
Huizenga (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+9 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 4in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (41% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
McCann (D)
41%
chance of winning
Huizenga (R)
59%
- Average margin
- R+1.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+5
- Polls
- 4in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Bill Huizenga
Incumbent U.S. representative (2011–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.4M
- From individuals
- $2.2M
- Spent
- $3.6M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.56 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.11 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -4.11 |
Polls
All 4 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | McCann | Huizenga | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO for McCann's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 500 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | R+4.7 |
| GBAO for McCann's campaignD-sponsored | May 28–Jun 1 | 500 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | R+2.0 |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America, an organization linked to the Republican Study CommitteeR-sponsored | Mar 12–Mar 14 | 400 LV | 42 | 48 | R+6 | D+3.5 |
| Public Policy PollingD-sponsored | Nov 20–Nov 21 | 559 RV | 42 | 44 | R+2 | D+0.1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 16, 2026.
The district
Lean R+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 776,233
- People per km²
- 77
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 9%
- Black 8%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
425,828 votes · R+11.9✓ Bill Huizenga (R)55.1%
Jessica Swartz (D)43.4%
Curtis Clark (CST)1.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
427,245 two-party votes · R+5.6 · R+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Kamala Harris (D)47.2%
2022
338,471 votes · R+12.3✓ Bill Huizenga (R)54.3%
Joseph Alfonso (D)42.5%
Lorence Wenke (L)2.5%
Curtis Michael Clark (CST)0.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
373,272 votes · R+33.5✓ John R Moolenaar (R)65.0%
Jerry Hilliard (D)32.4%
David Canny (L)1.4%
Amy Slepr (G)1.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
409,770 two-party votes · R+4.0 · R+8.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.0%
Joe Biden (D)48.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
285,050 votes · R+25.2✓ John Moolenaar (R)62.6%
Jerry Hilliard (D)37.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
315,751 votes · R+31.5✓ John R Moolenaar (R)61.6%
Debra Wirth (D)32.1%
Leonard Schwartz (L)2.7%
George M Zimmer (CST)1.8%
Jordan Salvi (G)1.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
339,032 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+12.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)45.0%