99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Iowa › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Iowa's 1st District

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (70%).

Bohannan is favored to win: Bohannan wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Bohannan (D)
70%
chance of winning
Miller-Meeks (R)
30%
Average margin
D+3.2
80% of outcomes
R+5 to D+12
Partisan lean
R+7
Polls
1in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (70%).

Bohannan is favored to win: Bohannan wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Bohannan (D)
70%
chance of winning
Miller-Meeks (R)
30%
Average margin
D+3.8
80% of outcomes
R+6 to D+14
Partisan lean
R+7
Polls
1in our database

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+3.2R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+3.8R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Bohannan 70%Miller-Meeks 30%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Bohannan 70%Miller-Meeks 30%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Christina Bohannan

Former state representative from the 85th district (2021–2023) and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024

Experience
State legislature
Raised
$9.5M
From individuals
$7.8M
Spent
$6.6M
Cash on hand
$3M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Independent

Michael Bridgford

Independent financial advisor

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$338K
From individuals
$83.9K
Spent
$242.1K
Cash on hand
$95.9K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
Midwest adjustment
+1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe Midwest adjustmentD+1.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+0.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Iowa and look-alikeplacesD+1.4Polling average1 poll, latest Jul 16D+8.2Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+3.2Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+3.8

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0.72
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation9.67
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+8.2Jul 16Nov 3
All 1 polls
PollsterDatesSampleBohannanMiller-MeeksMarginAdjusted
The Bullfinch Group/Independent CenterJul 13–Jul 16705 LV4035D+5D+8.2

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 16, 2026.

The district

Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+3.5R+5.7 vs. nation2020 presidentR+3.4R+8.0 vs. nation2024 presidentR+8.6R+7.1 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
800,735
People per km²
28
Adults with a B.A.+
33%
White, no degree
58%of adults
  • White 83%
  • Hispanic 6%
  • Black 4%
  • Asian 2%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

414,078 votes · R+0.2
✓ Mariannette Millermeeks (R)50.0%
Christina Bohannan (D)49.8%

2024 President Vote in this district

416,807 two-party votes · R+8.6 · R+7.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.3%
Kamala Harris (D)45.7%

2022

305,380 votes · R+6.8
✓ Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)53.4%
Christina Bohannan (D)46.6%

2020 Earlier district lines

413,869 votes · R+2.6
✓ Ashley Hinson (R)51.2%
Abby Finkenauer (D)48.6%

2020 President Vote in this district

424,477 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+8.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Joe Biden (D)48.3%

2018 Earlier district lines

334,243 votes · D+5.2
✓ Abby Finkenauer (D)51.0%
Rod Blum (R)45.9%
Troy Hageman (L)3.1%

2016 Earlier district lines

384,977 votes · R+7.7
✓ Rod Blum (R)53.7%
Monica Vernon (D)46.1%

2016 President Vote in this district

370,324 two-party votes · R+3.5 · R+5.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.3%

Also on the ballot in Iowa

U.S. SenateJosh TurekAshley HinsonFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Rep. GovernorRob SandZach LahnD flipD flip83%Dem.79%Dem.

Neighboring districts

IA-2Lindsay JamesJoe MitchellFlip riskFlip risk52%Dem.58%Rep. IA-3Sarah Trone GarriottZach NunnD flipD flip81%Dem.72%Dem. IA-4David DawsonChris McGowan99%Rep.99%Rep.