Democratic
Erik Osberg
Media marketing firm owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $537K
- From individuals
- $516.9K
- Spent
- $414.3K
- Cash on hand
- $122.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 7th District
Fischbach is very likely to win: Fischbach wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Osberg (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Fischbach (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+25.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fischbach is very likely to win: Fischbach wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Osberg (D)
1%
chance of winning
Fischbach (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+27.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+40 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michelle Fischbach
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.3M
- From individuals
- $470.3K
- Spent
- $777.3K
- Cash on hand
- $919.8K
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.37 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.16 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.16 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 716,709
- People per km²
- 9
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 67%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
390,510 votes · R+41.0✓ Michelle Fischbach (R)70.4%
A J "john" Peters (D)29.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
390,180 two-party votes · R+37.1 · R+35.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.5%
Kamala Harris (D)31.5%
2022
305,866 votes · R+41.6✓ Michelle Fischbach (R)66.9%
Jill Abahsain (D)27.6%
TRAVIS âBULLâ JOHNSON (LMN)5.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
363,477 votes · R+14.5✓ Michelle Fischbach (R)53.4%
Collin C Peterson (D)39.8%
Slater Johnson (LMN)4.9%
Rae Hart Anderson (GLC)1.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
394,745 two-party votes · R+34.0 · R+38.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.0%
Joe Biden (D)33.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
281,509 votes · D+4.3✓ Collin C Peterson (D)52.1%
Dave Hughes (R)47.8%
2016 Earlier district lines
330,848 votes · D+5.0✓ Collin C Peterson (D)52.5%
Dave Hughes (R)47.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
342,777 two-party votes · R+36.9 · R+39.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.5%