DemocraticIncumbent
Seth Magaziner
Incumbent U.S. representative (2023–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $865.1K
- Spent
- $815.1K
- Cash on hand
- $1.6M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Rhode Island › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rhode Island's 2nd District
Magaziner is very likely to win: Magaziner wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Magaziner (D)
99%
chance of winning
Mellor (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+10 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- 1in our database
Magaziner is very likely to win: Magaziner wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Magaziner (D)
98%
chance of winning
Mellor (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+15.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+9
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Vic Mellor
Businessman and registered foreign agent for Cuba
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $3.6M
- From individuals
- $48K
- Spent
- $3.5M
- Cash on hand
- $53.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- New England adjustment
- +4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.36 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 10.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 10.26 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Magaziner | Mellor | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WPRI-TV | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 406 LV | 55 | 39 | D+16 | D+11.8 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.
The district
Lean D+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 562,446
- People per km²
- 210
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 46%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 16%
- Black 4%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
262,219 votes · D+16.6✓ Seth Magaziner (D)58.3%
Stephen Joseph Corvi (R)41.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
267,300 two-party votes · D+7.2 · D+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2022
201,089 votes · D+3.8✓ Seth M Magaziner (D)50.4%
Allan W Fung (R)46.7%
William H Gilbert (I)2.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
264,557 votes · D+16.7✓ James R Langevin (D)58.2%
Robert B Lancia (R)41.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
271,170 two-party votes · D+13.9 · D+9.4 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.0%
Donald Trump (R)43.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
199,197 votes · D+27.3✓ James R Langevin (D)63.5%
Salvatore G Caiozzo (R)36.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
229,148 votes · D+30.9✓ James R Langevin (D)58.1%
Rhue R Reis (R)30.7%
Jeffrey C Johnson (I)7.1%
Salvatore G Caiozzo (I)3.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
228,705 two-party votes · D+7.8 · D+5.6 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)53.9%
Donald Trump (R)46.1%