Democratic
Andrew Beck
Product developer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $14.6K
- From individuals
- $13K
- Spent
- $11.6K
- Cash on hand
- $3.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Wisconsin › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Wisconsin's 5th District
Fitzgerald is very likely to win: Fitzgerald wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Beck (D)
2%
chance of winning
Fitzgerald (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+15.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+25 to R+7
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Fitzgerald is clearly favored to win: Fitzgerald wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Beck (D)
5%
chance of winning
Fitzgerald (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+14.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+27 to R+4
- Partisan lean
- R+23
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Scott Fitzgerald
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $486K
- Spent
- $886.7K
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.71 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.71 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 737,598
- People per km²
- 128
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 41%
- White, no degree
- 52%of adults
- White 85%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 2%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
466,682 votes · R+28.9✓ Scott Fitzgerald (R)64.4%
Ben Steinhoff (D)35.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
473,793 two-party votes · R+22.5 · R+21.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.2%
Kamala Harris (D)38.8%
2022
378,322 votes · R+28.9✓ Scott Fitzgerald (R)64.4%
Mike van Someren (D)35.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
441,599 votes · R+20.3✓ Scott Fitzgerald (R)60.1%
Tom Palzewicz (D)39.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
465,229 two-party votes · R+23.2 · R+27.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.6%
Joe Biden (D)38.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
364,005 votes · R+24.0✓ F James Sensenbrenner Jr (R)62.0%
Tom Palzewicz (D)38.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
390,507 votes · R+39.0✓ F James Sensenbrenner Jr (R)66.8%
Khary Penebaker (D)29.3%
John Arndt (L)3.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
408,774 two-party votes · R+28.0 · R+30.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.0%