Democratic
Jeffrey Hulum III
State representative from the 119th district (2022–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $60.2K
- From individuals
- $53.9K
- Spent
- $50K
- Cash on hand
- $10.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Mississippi › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Mississippi's 4th District
Ezell is very likely to win: Ezell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hulum (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Ezell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+45 to R+27
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Ezell is very likely to win: Ezell wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hulum (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Ezell (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Mike Ezell
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.1M
- From individuals
- $510.6K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $165.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.82 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.82 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 750,655
- People per km²
- 36
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 22%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
290,866 votes · R+47.9✓ Mike Ezell (R)73.9%
Craig Elliot Raybon (D)26.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
290,681 two-party votes · R+43.0 · R+41.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.5%
Kamala Harris (D)28.5%
2022
174,258 votes · R+49.8✓ Mike Ezell (R)73.3%
Johnny L Dupree (D)24.6%
Alden Patrick Johnson (L)2.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
255,140 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Steven M Palazzo (R)100.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
333,062 two-party votes · R+41.1 · R+45.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)70.5%
Joe Biden (D)29.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
223,732 votes · R+37.9✓ Steven Palazzo (R)68.2%
Jeramey Anderson (D)30.7%
Lajena Sheets (REF)1.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
278,779 votes · R+39.3✓ Steven M Palazzo (R)63.8%
Mark Gladney (D)27.8%
Richard Blake McCluskey (L)5.2%
shawn ohara (REF)3.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
293,850 two-party votes · R+44.2 · R+46.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)72.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)27.9%