DemocraticIncumbent
Chris Deluzio
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.7M
- From individuals
- $3M
- Spent
- $2.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 17th District
Deluzio is very likely to win: Deluzio wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Deluzio (D)
99%
chance of winning
Guy (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+17.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+9 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Deluzio is clearly favored to win: Deluzio wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Deluzio (D)
94%
chance of winning
Guy (R)
6%
- Average margin
- D+14.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+6
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.1 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.52 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.52 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+6: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 756,729
- People per km²
- 321
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 7%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
450,738 votes · D+7.8✓ Christopher R. Deluzio (D)53.9%
Rob Mercuri (R)46.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
452,832 two-party votes · D+5.6 · D+7.1 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)52.8%
Donald Trump (R)47.2%
2022
362,628 votes · D+6.8✓ Chris Deluzio (D)53.4%
Jeremy Shaffer (R)46.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
434,537 votes · D+2.3✓ Conor J Lamb (D)51.1%
Richard Sean Parnell (R)48.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
476,620 two-party votes · D+6.5 · D+1.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.2%
Donald Trump (R)46.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
325,579 votes · D+12.5✓ Conor James Lamb (D)56.3%
Keith Rothfus (R)43.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
293,164 votes · D+7.6✓ Matt Cartwright (D)53.8%
Matt Connolly (R)46.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
409,860 two-party votes · D+1.5 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%