Democratic
Trina Swanson
Former U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director of International Operations
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $649.8K
- From individuals
- $611.9K
- Spent
- $482.4K
- Cash on hand
- $167.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 8th District
Stauber is clearly favored to win: Stauber wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Swanson (D)
13%
chance of winning
Stauber (R)
87%
- Average margin
- R+7.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Stauber is favored to win: Stauber wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Swanson (D)
21%
chance of winning
Stauber (R)
79%
- Average margin
- R+7.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+5
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Pete Stauber
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $851.8K
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $1.2M
Money: FEC, through Jul 22, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.91 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.47 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.47 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 724,518
- People per km²
- 8
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 64%of adults
- White 87%
- Hispanic 2%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
421,606 votes · R+16.1✓ Pete Stauber (R)58.0%
Jen Schultz (D)41.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
423,285 two-party votes · R+14.5 · R+13.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Kamala Harris (D)42.7%
2022
330,080 votes · R+14.5✓ Pete Stauber (R)57.2%
Jen Schultz (D)42.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
393,711 votes · R+20.4✓ Pete Stauber (R)56.8%
Quinn Nystrom (D)37.6%
Judith Schwartzbacker (GLC)5.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
430,393 two-party votes · R+12.4 · R+16.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)56.2%
Joe Biden (D)43.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
314,211 votes · R+5.8✓ Pete Stauber (R)50.7%
Joe Radinovich (D)45.2%
Ray Skip Sandman (I)4.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
356,979 votes · D+0.6✓ Richard M Nolan (D)50.2%
Stewart Mills (R)49.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
364,149 two-party votes · R+14.7 · R+16.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.7%