Democratic
Leticia Gutierrez
Environmental justice advocate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $55.4K
- From individuals
- $54.6K
- Spent
- $36.7K
- Cash on hand
- $18.7K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 9th District
Mealer is clearly favored to win: Mealer wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Gutierrez (D)
9%
chance of winning
Mealer (R)
91%
- Average margin
- R+9.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 2in our database
Mealer is clearly favored to win: Mealer wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Gutierrez (D)
16%
chance of winning
Mealer (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+7.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+18 to D+3
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Alex Mealer
METRO board member and nominee for Harris County judge in 2022
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $479.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -3.21 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gutierrez | Mealer | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston | Oct 3–Oct 7 | 677 LV | 42 | 48 | R+6 | R+6.6 |
| PPP for Gutierrez's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 18–Sep 19 | — V | 39 | 45 | R+6 | R+10.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 7, 2026.
The district
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 770,091
- People per km²
- 189
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 14%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 23%
- Hispanic 65%
- Black 9%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
184,141 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Al Green (D)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
196,373 two-party votes · R+20.2 · R+18.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.1%
Kamala Harris (D)39.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
163,607 votes · D+53.4✓ Al Green (D)76.7%
Jimmy I Leon (R)23.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
229,107 votes · D+55.4✓ Al Green (D)75.5%
Johnny Teague (R)21.6%
Jose R Sosa (L)2.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
217,267 two-party votes · R+7.7 · R+12.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)53.9%
Joe Biden (D)46.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
153,001 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Al Green (D)89.1%
Phil Kurtz (L)3.9%
Benjamin Hernandez (I)3.8%
Kesha Rogers (I)3.3%
2016 Earlier district lines
188,523 votes · D+61.3✓ Al Green (D)80.6%
Jeff Martin (R)19.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
171,079 two-party votes · R+2.0 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.0%