Democratic
Missi Hesketh
Former mayor of Forsyth and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $50.5K
- From individuals
- $42K
- Spent
- $22.1K
- Cash on hand
- $33.5K
Money: FEC, through Jul 15, 2026.
Missouri › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Missouri's 7th District
Burlison is very likely to win: Burlison wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hesketh (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Burlison (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+33.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+42 to R+25
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Burlison is very likely to win: Burlison wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Hesketh (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Burlison (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+35.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+47 to R+24
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Eric Burlison
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $1.3M
- Spent
- $1.3M
- Cash on hand
- $961.2K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.82 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.82 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 785,931
- People per km²
- 52
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 28%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
367,868 votes · R+46.3✓ Eric Burlison (R)71.6%
Missi Hesketh (D)26.3%
Kevin Craig (L)2.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
371,025 two-party votes · R+43.1 · R+41.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.6%
Kamala Harris (D)28.4%
2022
251,680 votes · R+45.2✓ Eric Burlison (R)70.9%
Kristen Radaker-Sheafer (D)26.8%
Kevin Craig (L)2.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
369,283 votes · R+44.3✓ Billy Long (R)68.9%
Teresa Montseny (D)26.6%
Kevin Craig (L)4.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
365,849 two-party votes · R+42.2 · R+46.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.1%
Joe Biden (D)28.9%
2018 Earlier district lines
296,455 votes · R+37.5✓ Billy Long (R)66.2%
Jamie Daniel Schoolcraft (D)30.1%
Benjamin T Brixey (L)3.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
338,607 votes · R+42.3✓ Billy Long (R)67.5%
Genevieve "gen" Williams (D)27.4%
Benjamin T Brixey (L)5.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
320,262 two-party votes · R+47.6 · R+49.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)73.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)26.2%