Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 4th District
FusionGillen is very likely to win: Gillen wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Gillen (D)
98%
chance of winning
Driscoll (R)
2%
- Average margin
- D+16.3
- 80% of outcomes
- D+7 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Gillen is clearly favored to win: Gillen wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Gillen (D)
91%
chance of winning
Driscoll (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+12.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+5
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Laura Gillen
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $6M
- From individuals
- $3.6M
- Spent
- $2.1M
- Cash on hand
- $3.9M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Jeanine Driscoll
Hempstead receiver of taxes
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $664.6K
- From individuals
- $133.8K
- Spent
- $393.7K
- Cash on hand
- $270.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.27 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.22 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0.22 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+5: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 773,091
- People per km²
- 1,580
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 45%
- White, no degree
- 24%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 22%
- Black 17%
- Asian 8%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
375,518 votes · D+2.3✓ Laura A. Gillen (D)51.1%
Anthony D’esposito (R)48.8%
2024 President Vote in this district
383,939 two-party votes · D+1.3 · D+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.6%
Donald Trump (R)49.4%
2022 Earlier district lines
271,560 votes · R+3.6✓ ANTHONY P DâESPOSITO (R)51.8%
Laura A Gillen (D)48.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
355,912 votes · D+13.3✓ Kathleen M Rice (D)56.1%
Douglas L Tuman (R)43.0%
Joseph R Naham (G)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
390,468 two-party votes · D+14.7 · D+10.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)57.3%
Donald Trump (R)42.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
260,206 votes · D+22.7✓ Kathleen M Rice (D)61.3%
Ameer N Benno (R)38.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
313,000 votes · D+19.2✓ Kathleen M Rice (D)59.6%
David H Gurfein (R)40.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
339,986 two-party votes · D+12.5 · D+10.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.2%
Donald Trump (R)43.8%