Democratic
Doug Chapin
College professor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $691.2K
- From individuals
- $598.4K
- Spent
- $599.5K
- Cash on hand
- $91.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Minnesota › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Minnesota's 6th District
Emmer is very likely to win: Emmer wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Chapin (D)
4%
chance of winning
Emmer (R)
96%
- Average margin
- R+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Emmer is clearly favored to win: Emmer wins in about 9 of every 10 simulations.
Chapin (D)
8%
chance of winning
Emmer (R)
92%
- Average margin
- R+12.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+24 to R+1
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.45 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -2.95 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -2.95 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 732,795
- People per km²
- 108
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
416,496 votes · R+25.1✓ Tom Emmer (R)62.4%
Jeanne Hendricks (D)37.4%
2024 President Vote in this district
422,046 two-party votes · R+20.1 · R+18.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.0%
Kamala Harris (D)40.0%
2022
319,767 votes · R+24.2✓ Tom Emmer (R)62.0%
Jeanne Hendricks (D)37.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
412,307 votes · R+31.6✓ Tom Emmer (R)65.7%
Tawnja Zahradka (D)34.2%
2020 President Vote in this district
403,894 two-party votes · R+18.0 · R+22.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.0%
Joe Biden (D)41.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
315,726 votes · R+22.4✓ Tom Emmer (R)61.1%
Ian Todd (D)38.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
358,924 votes · R+31.4✓ Tom Emmer (R)65.6%
David Snyder (D)34.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
329,526 two-party votes · R+25.9 · R+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.0%