Democratic
Johnny Garcia
Bexar County sheriff's deputy
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $931.7K
- From individuals
- $708.8K
- Spent
- $608.6K
- Cash on hand
- $323.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 35th District
Cruz is favored to win: Cruz wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Garcia (D)
40%
chance of winning
Cruz (R)
60%
- Average margin
- R+1.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- 1in our database
Cruz is favored to win: Cruz wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Garcia (D)
40%
chance of winning
Cruz (R)
60%
- Average margin
- R+2.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Carlos De La Cruz
Gym owner and brother of U.S. representative Monica De La Cruz
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.9M
- From individuals
- $1.2M
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $476.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Garcia | Cruz | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington Petts for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 27–Aug 31 | 500 LV | 44 | 45 | R+1 | R+5.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 31, 2026.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 826,448
- People per km²
- 111
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 30%
- Hispanic 58%
- Black 7%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
253,116 votes · D+34.7✓ Greg Casar (D)67.4%
Steven Wright (R)32.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
297,470 two-party votes · R+10.7 · R+9.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Kamala Harris (D)44.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
178,803 votes · D+45.2✓ Greg Casar (D)72.6%
Dan McQueen (R)27.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
269,797 votes · D+37.2✓ Lloyd Doggett (D)65.4%
Jenny Garcia Sharon (R)29.9%
Mark Loewe (L)2.7%
Jason Mata Sr (I)1.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
335,533 two-party votes · D+1.5 · R+3.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.8%
Donald Trump (R)49.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
193,906 votes · D+46.5✓ Lloyd Doggett (D)71.3%
David Smalling (R)26.1%
Clark Patterson (L)2.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
197,576 votes · D+33.3✓ Lloyd Doggett (D)63.1%
Susan Narvaiz (R)31.6%
Rhett Rosenquest Smith (L)3.3%
Scott Trimble (G)2.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
289,606 two-party votes · R+0.9 · R+3.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.6%
Also on the ballot in Texas
Neighboring districts
TX-15Bobby PulidoMonica De La CruzFlip riskD flip54%Dem.66%Dem. TX-20Joaquin CastroEdgardo Rafael Baez>99%Dem.>99%Dem. TX-21Kristin HookMark Teixeira94%Rep.91%Rep. TX-23Katy Padilla StoutBrandon Herrera59%Rep.69%Rep. TX-27Tanya LloydMichael Cloud97%Rep.93%Rep. TX-28Henry CuellarTano Tijerina90%Dem.89%Dem.