Democratic
Patty Garcia
Chief of staff of incumbent Chuy García
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $358.7K
- From individuals
- $177.9K
- Spent
- $173.2K
- Cash on hand
- $185.5K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 4th District
Garcia is very likely to win: Garcia wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Garcia (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Castillo (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+42.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+34 to D+53
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- 1in our database
Garcia is very likely to win: Garcia wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Garcia (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Castillo (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+41.2
- 80% of outcomes
- D+30 to D+53
- Partisan lean
- D+34
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Lupe Castillo
Pharmacy technician and candidate for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
Independent
Chris Getty
Mayor of Lyons
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $188.2K
- Spent
- $56.5K
- Cash on hand
- $131.6K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Working Class
Ed Hershey
High school teacher and nominee for this district in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.6 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 11.51 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Garcia | Castillo | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Center Voice for the Bullfinch Group | Jul 31–Aug 1 | 653 RV | 34 | 15 | D+19 | D+40.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 1, 2026.
The district
Lean D+34: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 738,116
- People per km²
- 2,939
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 25%
- White, no degree
- 15%of adults
- White 23%
- Hispanic 66%
- Black 5%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
206,469 votes · D+42.4✓ JESúS G. "CHUY" GARCíA (D)67.5%
Lupe Castillo (R)27.3%
Ed Hershey (WCP)5.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
207,989 two-party votes · D+28.9 · D+30.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)64.4%
Donald Trump (R)35.6%
2022
133,089 votes · D+41.8✓ Jesus "chuy" Garcia (D)68.4%
James Falakos (R)28.1%
Edward Hershey (WCP)3.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
222,737 votes · D+68.1✓ Jesus G "chuy" Garcia (D)84.1%
Jesus Solorio (R)15.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
238,847 two-party votes · D+47.3 · D+42.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)73.6%
Donald Trump (R)26.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
166,189 votes · D+73.2✓ Jesus "chuy" Garcia (D)86.6%
Mark Wayne Lorch (R)13.4%
2016 Earlier district lines
171,297 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Luis V Gutierrez (D)100.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
223,479 two-party votes · D+54.3 · D+52.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)77.1%
Donald Trump (R)22.9%