Democratic
Paul Nolley
Nonprofit executive
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $415.7K
- From individuals
- $350.7K
- Spent
- $185.6K
- Cash on hand
- $230.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Illinois › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Illinois's 16th District
LaHood is very likely to win: LaHood wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Nolley (D)
2%
chance of winning
LaHood (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+19.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+30 to R+8
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
LaHood is clearly favored to win: LaHood wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Nolley (D)
5%
chance of winning
LaHood (R)
95%
- Average margin
- R+14.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+3
- Partisan lean
- R+22
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Darin LaHood
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.2M
- From individuals
- $913.7K
- Spent
- $3.4M
- Cash on hand
- $6.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.39 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -30 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -35.06 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+22: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 776,454
- People per km²
- 33
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 31%
- White, no degree
- 60%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 3%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
318,547 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Darin Lahood (R)97.6%
Write-In (—)2.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
386,546 two-party votes · R+22.8 · R+21.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.4%
Kamala Harris (D)38.6%
2022
297,946 votes · R+32.7✓ Darin Lahood (R)66.3%
ELIZABETH âLISAâ HADERLEIN (D)33.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
338,369 votes · R+29.4✓ Adam Kinzinger (R)64.7%
Dani Brzozowski (D)35.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
412,636 two-party votes · R+21.1 · R+25.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.6%
Joe Biden (D)39.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
255,883 votes · R+18.2✓ Adam Kinzinger (R)59.1%
Sara Dady (D)40.9%
2016 Earlier district lines
265,497 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Adam Kinzinger (R)97.8%
[Write-in] (—)2.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
341,936 two-party votes · R+25.6 · R+27.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.2%
Also on the ballot in Illinois
Neighboring districts
IL-1Jonathan JacksonChristian Maxwell>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-2Donna MillerMichael Noack>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-10Brad SchneiderCarl Lambrecht>99%Dem.>99%Dem. IL-11Bill FosterJeff Walter>99%Dem.98%Dem. IL-14Lauren UnderwoodJames Marter99%Dem.94%Dem. IL-15Jennifer ToddMary Miller>99%Rep.>99%Rep. IL-17Eric SorensenDillan Vancil99%Dem.93%Dem.