DemocraticIncumbent
Johnny Olszewski
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $799.4K
- Spent
- $762.2K
- Cash on hand
- $644.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Maryland › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland's 2nd District
Olszewski is very likely to win: Olszewski wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Olszewski (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Wallace (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+29.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+21 to D+39
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Olszewski is very likely to win: Olszewski wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Olszewski (D)
99%
chance of winning
Wallace (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+26.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+15 to D+38
- Partisan lean
- D+18
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Dave Wallace
Business owner and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $20.2K
- From individuals
- $19K
- Spent
- $17.1K
- Cash on hand
- $3.1K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.24 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.72 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+18: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 770,162
- People per km²
- 349
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 59%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 24%
- Asian 6%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
384,794 votes · D+19.1✓ John "johnny O" Olszewski, Jr. (D)58.2%
Kim Klacik (R)39.5%
Jasen Joseph Wunder (L)2.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
381,363 two-party votes · D+19.0 · D+20.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)59.5%
Donald Trump (R)40.5%
2022
268,434 votes · D+18.6✓ C A Dutch Ruppersberger (D)59.2%
Nicolee Ambrose (R)40.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
332,026 votes · D+35.8✓ C A Dutch Ruppersberger (D)67.7%
Johnny Ray Salling (R)32.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
384,083 two-party votes · D+21.3 · D+16.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)60.7%
Donald Trump (R)39.3%
2018 Earlier district lines
253,302 votes · D+36.5✓ Ca Dutch Ruppersberger (D)66.0%
Liz Matory (R)30.7%
Michael Carney (L)2.1%
Guy Mimoun (G)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
309,479 votes · D+30.4✓ C A Dutch Ruppersberger (D)62.1%
Pat McDonough (R)33.1%
Kristin S Kasprzak (L)4.6%
2016 President Vote in this district
346,849 two-party votes · D+12.0 · D+9.8 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.0%
Donald Trump (R)44.0%