Democratic
Vanessa Enoch
Perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $0
- From individuals
- $25.4K
- Spent
- $0
- Cash on hand
- $3K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Ohio › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Ohio's 8th District
Davidson is clearly favored to win: Davidson wins in 6 of every 7 simulations.
Enoch (D)
14%
chance of winning
Davidson (R)
86%
- Average margin
- R+7.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+16 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Davidson is favored to win: Davidson wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Enoch (D)
20%
chance of winning
Davidson (R)
80%
- Average margin
- R+7.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+16
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Warren Davidson
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $751.3K
- From individuals
- $175.5K
- Spent
- $713.9K
- Cash on hand
- $432.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+16: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 772,307
- People per km²
- 177
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 5%
- Black 13%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
378,128 votes · R+25.6✓ Warren Davidson (R)62.8%
Vanessa Enoch (D)37.2%
2024 President Vote in this district
398,630 two-party votes · R+15.8 · R+14.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.9%
Kamala Harris (D)42.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
278,916 votes · R+29.3✓ Warren Davidson (R)64.6%
Vanessa Enoch (D)35.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
357,157 votes · R+38.0✓ Warren Davidson (R)69.0%
Vanessa Enoch (D)31.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
408,325 two-party votes · R+14.9 · R+19.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Joe Biden (D)42.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
267,343 votes · R+33.1✓ Warren Davidson (R)66.5%
Vanessa Enoch (D)33.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
325,506 votes · R+43.7✓ Warren Davidson (R)68.8%
Steven Fought (D)27.0%
Derrick James Hendricks (G)4.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
369,931 two-party votes · R+20.7 · R+22.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)39.6%