Arizona › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (77%).
Shah is favored to win: Shah wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (74%).
Shah is favored to win: Shah wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
Former state representative from the 5th district (2019–2024) and nominee for this district in 2024
Money: FEC, through Jul 1, 2026.
CBS Sports analyst and former Arizona Cardinals football player (previously ran in the 5th district)
Money: FEC, through Jul 31, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.01 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Shah | Feely | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs | Oct 1–Oct 1 | 400 LV | 44 | 42 | D+2 | D+2.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.