Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 8th District
Scott is very likely to win: Scott wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Esti (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Scott (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+25.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+17
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Scott is very likely to win: Scott wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Esti wins Nov 3
1%
Runoff Dec 1
1%
Scott wins Nov 3
98%
Including the runoff: Esti 1% · Scott 99% to win the seat. In a runoff, Scott wins 53% of the time.
- Average margin
- R+23.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+35 to R+12
- Partisan lean
- R+30
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Kelly Esti
Businessman
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $28K
- From individuals
- $21K
- Spent
- $28.9K
- Cash on hand
- $3.7K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
RepublicanIncumbent
Austin Scott
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $491.6K
- Spent
- $972.4K
- Cash on hand
- $1.4M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -2.26 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -5.27 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -5.27 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+30: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 771,665
- People per km²
- 27
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 23%
- White, no degree
- 44%of adults
- White 57%
- Hispanic 8%
- Black 30%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
335,981 votes · R+37.8✓ Austin Scott (R)68.9%
Darrius Butler (D)31.1%
2024 President Vote in this district
343,214 two-party votes · R+30.7 · R+29.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.3%
Kamala Harris (D)34.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
260,586 votes · R+37.2✓ Austin Scott (R)68.6%
Darrius Butler (D)31.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
307,965 votes · R+29.0✓ Austin Scott (R)64.5%
Lindsay Holliday (D)35.5%
2020 President Vote in this district
327,207 two-party votes · R+27.9 · R+32.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.9%
Joe Biden (D)36.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
198,152 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Austin Scott (R)100.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
257,208 votes · R+35.3✓ Austin Scott (R)67.6%
James Neal Harris (D)32.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
273,887 two-party votes · R+31.4 · R+33.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)34.3%