Democratic
Lindsay James
State representative from the 71st district (2019–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $3.5M
- From individuals
- $3.1M
- Spent
- $2.8M
- Cash on hand
- $676.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Iowa › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Iowa's 2nd District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
James (D)
52%
chance of winning
Mitchell (R)
48%
- Average margin
- D+0.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- 2in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (42% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
James (D)
42%
chance of winning
Mitchell (R)
58%
- Average margin
- R+1.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+9
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Joe Mitchell
Former state representative from the 84th district (2019–2023)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.7M
- From individuals
- $2M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $868.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Midwest adjustment
- +1.4How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -4.49 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | James | Mitchell | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 14–Jul 19 | — V | 46 | 45 | D+1 | R+3.3 |
| Public Policy Polling for James's campaignD-sponsored | Apr 13–Apr 14 | 675 RV | 36 | 33 | D+3 | D+2.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Jul 19, 2026.
The district
Lean R+9: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 795,370
- People per km²
- 24
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 63%of adults
- White 86%
- Hispanic 4%
- Black 4%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
408,802 votes · R+15.8✓ Ashley Hinson (R)57.1%
Sarah Corkery (D)41.5%
Jody Madlom Puffett (I)1.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
413,958 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Kamala Harris (D)44.9%
2022
318,399 votes · R+8.2✓ Ashley Hinson (R)54.1%
Liz Mathis (D)45.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
394,449 votes · Even✓ Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)49.9%
Rita R Hart (D)49.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
425,731 two-party votes · R+4.5 · R+9.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.2%
Joe Biden (D)47.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
312,913 votes · D+12.5✓ Dave Loebsack (D)54.8%
Christopher Peters (R)42.6%
Mark David Strauss (L)2.0%
Daniel Clark (I)0.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
370,032 votes · D+7.5✓ David Loebsack (D)53.7%
Christopher Peters (R)46.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
379,717 two-party votes · R+5.0 · R+7.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.5%