Democratic
Jonathan Nez
Former president of the Navajo Nation (2019–2023) and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $3.5M
- From individuals
- $3.2M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.9M
Money: FEC, through Jul 1, 2026.
Arizona › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona's 2nd District
Crane is clearly favored to win: Crane wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Nez (D)
16%
chance of winning
Crane (R)
84%
- Average margin
- R+5.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+13 to D+2
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- 3in our database
Crane is favored to win: Crane wins in about 4 of every 5 simulations.
Nez (D)
22%
chance of winning
Crane (R)
78%
- Average margin
- R+5.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+14 to D+4
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.81 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 7.46 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 7.46 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Nez | Crane | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO for Nez's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 21–Aug 24 | 500 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 | R+7.2 |
| Peak Insights for Crane's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 17–Aug 20 | 400 LV | 42 | 53 | R+11 | D+0.9 |
| GBAO for Nez's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 11–Jun 15 | 500 LV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | R+8.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 24, 2026.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 847,772
- People per km²
- 6
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 26%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 55%
- Hispanic 19%
- Black 2%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 23%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
405,811 votes · R+8.8✓ Elijah Crane (R)54.4%
Jonathan Nez (D)45.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
412,345 two-party votes · R+15.1 · R+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.6%
Kamala Harris (D)42.4%
2022
323,827 votes · R+7.7✓ Eli Crane (R)53.8%
TOM OâHALLERAN (D)46.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
380,920 votes · D+10.2✓ Ann Kirkpatrick (D)55.1%
Brandon Martin (R)44.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
450,418 two-party votes · R+9.6 · R+14.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.8%
Joe Biden (D)45.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
294,840 votes · D+9.5✓ Ann Kirkpatrick (D)54.6%
Lea Marquez Peterson (R)45.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
316,291 votes · R+13.9✓ Martha McSally (R)56.8%
Matt Heinz (D)43.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
297,537 two-party votes · R+11.3 · R+13.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.3%
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