99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the state legislatures?

89 state legislative chambers in 46 states and DC hold elections on November 3, 2026, for 6,132 seats. 11 chambers have no regular election this year.

ALAKAZARCACOCTDEDCFLGAHIIDILINIA’28KSKY’27’27LAMEMDMAMIMN’27’27MSMOMTNENVNH’27’27NJ’28NMNYNCNDOHOKORPARI’28SCSDTNTXUTVT’27’27VAWAWVWIWY
  • Upper chamber / lower chamber
  • Not on the 2026 ballot (next election)
  • Control projected to flip (stripes: party with the majority now)
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
Chambers on the ballot
8911 not up this year
Democrats favored
41chance of control 50% or more (Horizon)
Republicans favored
48
Lean or closer (20–80%)
7chambers with a chance of control between 20% and 80%

Each tile is a state; bicameral legislatures are split, the upper chamber on top. Hover or focus a tile for both chambers' odds, or open a state for every district.

Ratings

Every chamber on the ballot by its chance of control, from Solid Democratic to Solid Republican.

Solid D34

Show 28 more

Likely D4

Lean D3

Toss-up1

Lean R3

Likely R4

Solid R40

Show 34 more

Solid D31

Show 25 more

Likely D5

Lean D7

Toss-up1

Lean R4

Likely R2

Solid R39

Show 33 more

Columns follow the chance of control: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the majority now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ no party). flip: control projected to change, in the color of the party favored to gain it.

Trifectas

Chance one party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber after November 3.

ALAKAZARCACOCTDEDCFLGAHIIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY
  • Democratic trifecta most likely
  • Divided most likely
  • Republican trifecta most likely
  • Trifecta now (dot in its party's color)
  • No forecast

Deeper color: a more likely outcome. Hover or focus a state for all three chances.

Democratic trifectas
19.2expected after the election · 15 now
Republican trifectas
18.6expected · 22 now
Divided
11.1expected · 12 now

Projected to change (9): Georgia (Becomes divided); Iowa (Becomes divided); Kansas (Becomes R trifecta); Maine (Becomes D trifecta); Michigan (Becomes D trifecta); Minnesota (Becomes D trifecta); New Hampshire (Becomes divided); Ohio (Becomes divided); Wisconsin (Becomes D trifecta).

Democratic trifectas
19.6expected after the election · 15 now
Republican trifectas
18.6expected · 22 now
Divided
10.8expected · 12 now

Projected to change (11): Arizona (Becomes D trifecta); Georgia (Becomes divided); Iowa (Becomes divided); Kansas (Becomes R trifecta); Maine (Becomes D trifecta); Michigan (Becomes D trifecta); Minnesota (Becomes D trifecta); Nevada (Becomes D trifecta); New Hampshire (Becomes divided); Ohio (Becomes divided); Vermont (Becomes D trifecta).

Expected counts add each state's chances, across 49 states with a partisan governor and legislature.

49 states
Trifecta odds by state
StateNowDem. trifectaDividedRep. trifectaOutlook
AlabamaR trifecta<1%<1%7%8%93%92%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
AlaskaDivided<1%<1%>99%>99%<1%<1%Divided likelyDivided likely
ArizonaDivided40%53%59%45%2%2%Divided likelyBecomes D trifecta
ArkansasR trifecta<1%<1%9%9%91%91%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
CaliforniaD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
ColoradoD trifecta96%94%5%6%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
ConnecticutD trifecta99%99%1%1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
DelawareD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
FloridaR trifecta<1%<1%29%30%71%70%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
GeorgiaR trifecta<1%3%57%64%43%32%Becomes dividedBecomes divided
HawaiiD trifecta99%99%1%1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
IdahoR trifecta<1%<1%1%1%99%99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
IllinoisD trifecta99%99%1%1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
IndianaR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
IowaR trifecta<1%<1%83%80%17%20%Becomes dividedBecomes divided
KansasDivided<1%<1%24%23%76%77%Becomes R trifectaBecomes R trifecta
KentuckyDivided<1%<1%>99%>99%<1%<1%Divided likelyDivided likely
LouisianaR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
MaineDivided91%88%9%12%<1%<1%Becomes D trifectaBecomes D trifecta
MarylandD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
MassachusettsD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
MichiganDivided71%51%27%44%2%5%Becomes D trifectaBecomes D trifecta
MinnesotaDivided90%83%10%17%<1%1%Becomes D trifectaBecomes D trifecta
MississippiR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
MissouriR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
MontanaR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
NevadaDivided42%53%58%47%<1%1%Divided likelyBecomes D trifecta
New HampshireR trifecta4%19%86%75%10%6%Becomes dividedBecomes divided
New JerseyD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
New MexicoD trifecta91%89%9%11%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
New YorkD trifecta98%97%2%3%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
North CarolinaDivided8%14%92%86%<1%<1%Divided likelyDivided likely
North DakotaR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
OhioR trifecta<1%<1%73%72%27%28%Becomes dividedBecomes divided
OklahomaR trifecta<1%<1%9%3%91%97%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
OregonD trifecta66%67%34%33%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
PennsylvaniaDivided39%42%61%58%<1%<1%Divided likelyDivided likely
Rhode IslandD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
South CarolinaR trifecta<1%<1%10%11%90%89%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
South DakotaR trifecta<1%<1%10%8%90%92%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
TennesseeR trifecta<1%<1%2%2%98%98%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
TexasR trifecta<1%<1%37%48%63%51%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
UtahR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
VermontDivided31%65%69%35%<1%<1%Divided likelyBecomes D trifecta
VirginiaD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
WashingtonD trifecta>99%>99%<1%<1%<1%<1%D trifecta likelyD trifecta likely
West VirginiaR trifecta<1%<1%<1%<1%>99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely
WisconsinDivided61%44%38%49%2%7%Becomes D trifectaDivided likely
WyomingR trifecta<1%<1%1%<1%99%>99%R trifecta likelyR trifecta likely

A trifecta: one party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so they are correlated; governors and chambers not on the ballot this year keep their current party. Highlighted rows: the most likely outcome differs from today. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Every chamber on the ballot

Chance of a Democratic or Republican majority after November 3.

89 chambers
State legislative chambers on the 2026 ballot, sorted by closest chance of control
ChamberFavored for controlProjected (D–R)Now (D–R)MajoritySeats up
Arizona State SenateProjected flipR 51%Toss-upD 69%Lean D16–15 +3 D seats17–14 +4 D seats13–1716All 30
Pennsylvania State SenateR 60%Lean RR 55%Toss-up24–26 +1 D seat24–26 +1 D seat23–272625 of 50
New Hampshire State SenateProjected flipR 62%Lean RD 62%Lean D12–12 +4 D seats14–11 +6 D seats8–1613All 24
Arizona House of RepresentativesProjected flipProjected flipD 70%Lean DD 73%Lean D33–28 +6 D seats33–27 +6 D seats27–3331All 60
North Carolina House of RepresentativesR 72%Lean RR 64%Lean R58–62 +11 D seats59–61 +12 D seats47–71–261All 120
Michigan House of RepresentativesProjected flipProjected flipD 77%Lean DD 62%Lean D59–51 +7 D seats57–53 +5 D seats52–5856All 110
Wisconsin State AssemblyProjected flipProjected flipD 79%Lean DD 61%Lean D52–47 +7 D seats51–48 +6 D seats45–5450All 99
Georgia House of RepresentativesR 80%Likely RR 62%Lean R87–93 +6 D seats89–91 +8 D seats81–9991All 180
Texas House of RepresentativesR 86%Likely RR 73%Lean R70–81 +8 D seats72–78 +10 D seats62–8676All 150
North Carolina State SenateR 87%Likely RR 77%Lean R22–28 +2 D seats23–27 +3 D seats20–3026All 50
New Hampshire House of RepresentativesProjected flipProjected flipD 87%Likely DD 86%Likely D235–165 +66 D seats234–166 +65 D seats169–211–2201386 of 400
Maine House of RepresentativesD 93%Likely DD 92%Likely D85–66 +10 D seats86–65 +11 D seats75–73–576All 151
Pennsylvania House of RepresentativesD 93%Likely DD 86%Likely D109–94 +6 D seats110–94 +7 D seats103–100102All 203
Iowa House of RepresentativesR 93%Likely RR 94%Likely R42–58 +9 D seats42–58 +9 D seats33–6751All 100
Michigan State SenateD 94%Likely DD 76%Lean D22–16 +2 D seats20–18 no change20–1820All 38
Wisconsin State SenateProjected flipProjected flipD 95%Solid DD 79%Lean D18–15 +3 D seats17–16 +2 D seats15–181717 of 33
Minnesota State SenateD 96%Solid DD 91%Likely D39–28 +5 D seats38–29 +4 D seats34–3334All 67
Florida House of RepresentativesR 97%Solid RR 96%Solid R47–74 +13 D seats47–73 +13 D seats34–8261All 120
Ohio House of RepresentativesR 97%Solid RR 97%Solid R42–57 +8 D seats41–58 +7 D seats34–6550All 99
Minnesota House of RepresentativesD 98%Solid DD 95%Solid D78–56 +11 D seats77–57 +10 D seats67–6668All 134
Maine State SenateD 99%Solid DD 97%Solid D22–13 +2 D seats22–13 +2 D seats20–14–118All 35
Nevada State AssemblyD 99%Solid DD 94%Likely D28–14 +1 D seat27–15 no change27–1522All 42
Georgia State SenateR 99%Solid RR 95%Likely R24–32 +2 D seats25–31 +3 D seats22–3329All 56
Nevada State SenateD >99%Solid DD 95%Solid D13–8 no change12–9 +1 R seat13–81111 of 21
Kansas House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R49–76 +12 D seats48–77 +11 D seats37–8863All 125
Montana House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R43–57 +1 D seat39–61 +3 R seats42–5851All 100
Missouri House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R64–99 +14 D seats63–101 +13 D seats50–10582All 163
Oregon State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D19–11 +1 D seat19–11 +1 D seat18–121615 of 30
Florida State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R13–27 +1 D seat13–27 +1 D seat12–26–12120 of 40
Oregon House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D39–21 +2 D seats39–21 +2 D seats37–2331All 60
Texas State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R11–20 +1 R seat11–20 +1 R seat12–181616 of 31
Indiana House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R34–66 +4 D seats34–66 +4 D seats30–69–151All 100
Ohio State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R11–22 +2 D seats11–22 +2 D seats9–231717 of 33
South Carolina House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R41–83 +6 D seats43–82 +8 D seats35–8963All 124
Alabama House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R29–76 no change30–76 +1 D seat29–7653All 105
Alabama State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R9–26 +1 D seat9–26 +1 D seat8–2718All 35
Alaska House of RepresentativesCoalitionR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R17–24 +3 D seats16–24 +2 D seats14–21–521All 40
Alaska State SenateCoalitionR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R8–12 +1 R seat8–12 +1 R seat9–111110 of 20
Arkansas House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R27–73 +7 D seats24–76 +4 D seats20–7951All 100
Arkansas State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R7–28 +1 D seat7–28 +1 D seat6–271817 of 35
California State AssemblyD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D65–15 +5 D seats65–15 +5 D seats60–1941All 80
California State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D32–8 +3 D seats32–9 +3 D seats29–102120 of 40
Colorado House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D48–17 +6 D seats46–19 +4 D seats42–2233All 65
Colorado State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D24–11 +1 D seat23–12 no change23–121817 of 35
Connecticut House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D123–28 +21 D seats127–24 +25 D seats102–4976All 151
Connecticut State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D31–5 +6 D seats32–4 +7 D seats25–1119All 36
Delaware House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D30–11 +3 D seats31–10 +4 D seats27–1421All 41
Delaware State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D15–6 no change15–6 no change15–61111 of 21
District of Columbia CouncilD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D11–2 no change11–2 no change11–0–277 of 13
Hawaii House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D46–5 +5 D seats45–6 +4 D seats41–1026All 51
Hawaii State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D23–3 +1 D seat23–2 +1 D seat22–31313 of 25
Idaho House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R11–59 +2 D seats11–59 +2 D seats9–6136All 70
Idaho State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R7–29 +1 D seat5–30 +1 R seat6–2918All 35
Illinois House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D84–34 +6 D seats84–34 +6 D seats78–4060All 118
Illinois State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D41–18 +1 D seat41–18 +1 D seat40–193039 of 59
Indiana State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R12–38 +2 D seats12–38 +2 D seats10–402625 of 50
Iowa State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R18–32 +1 D seat17–33 no change17–322625 of 50
Kentucky House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R24–76 +4 D seats22–78 +2 D seats20–8051All 100
Kentucky State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R7–31 +1 D seat7–31 +1 D seat6–322019 of 38
Maryland House of DelegatesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D107–35 +5 D seats108–33 +6 D seats102–3971All 141
Maryland State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D35–12 +1 D seat36–11 +2 D seats34–1324All 47
Massachusetts House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D141–19 +10 D seats143–17 +12 D seats131–25–181All 160
Massachusetts State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D35–5 no change35–5 no change35–521All 40
Missouri State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R12–22 +2 D seats12–23 +2 D seats10–231817 of 34
Montana State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R19–31 +1 D seat18–32 no change18–322625 of 50
Nebraska LegislatureNonpartisanR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R19–31 +4 D seats19–31 +4 D seats15–33–12524 of 49
New Mexico House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D47–23 +5 D seats48–23 +6 D seats42–2636All 70
New York State AssemblyD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D107–43 +4 D seats105–45 +2 D seats103–4776All 150
New York State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D46–17 +6 D seats46–17 +6 D seats40–2232All 63
North Dakota House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R13–81 +2 D seats13–81 +2 D seats11–834848 of 94
North Dakota State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R7–40 +2 D seats7–40 +2 D seats5–422424 of 47
Oklahoma House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R24–77 +6 D seats22–80 +4 D seats18–8151All 101
Oklahoma State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R9–40 +1 D seat8–40 no change8–392524 of 48
Rhode Island House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D67–9 +4 D seats66–9 +3 D seats63–10–138All 75
Rhode Island State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D35–3 +1 D seat35–3 +1 D seat34–420All 38
South Dakota House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R11–59 +6 D seats12–59 +7 D seats5–6536All 70
South Dakota State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R4–31 +1 D seat4–31 +1 D seat3–3218All 35
Tennessee House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R28–71 +5 D seats26–73 +3 D seats23–7550All 99
Tennessee State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R6–27 no change6–27 no change6–271717 of 33
Utah House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R22–53 +8 D seats23–52 +9 D seats14–6038All 75
Utah State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R7–22 +1 D seat7–22 +1 D seat6–22–11515 of 29
Vermont House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D120–30 +30 D seats120–30 +30 D seats90–57–376All 150
Vermont State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D23–7 +6 D seats23–7 +6 D seats17–1316All 30
Washington House of RepresentativesD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D69–29 +10 D seats72–26 +13 D seats59–3950All 98
Washington State SenateD >99%Solid DD >99%Solid D31–18 +1 D seat31–18 +1 D seat30–192524 of 49
West Virginia House of DelegatesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R13–87 +4 D seats10–90 +1 D seat9–9151All 100
West Virginia State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R2–32 no change2–32 no change2–321817 of 34
Wyoming House of RepresentativesR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R7–56 +1 D seat6–56 no change6–5632All 62
Wyoming State SenateR >99%Solid RR >99%Solid R2–29 no change2–29 no change2–291616 of 31

Sorted by how close the chance of control is to even (Horizon). Favored: the party more likely to win a majority and its chance. Projected: average seats across simulations, and the net change from now. Majority: seats needed for control, counting tie-breaking rules. Projected flip: a party other than today's majority is favored for control (60% or more). Now: current members by party, by registration in nonpartisan chambers.

Not on the ballot in 2026

These chambers hold their regular elections in other years.

Every state