Democratic
Michaela Barnett
Political organizer and small business owner
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $397.6K
- From individuals
- $385.6K
- Spent
- $341.4K
- Cash on hand
- $56.2K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
Tennessee › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Tennessee's 2nd District
Burchett is very likely to win: Burchett wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Barnett (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Burchett (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+23.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+15
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Burchett is very likely to win: Burchett wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Barnett (D)
1%
chance of winning
Burchett (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+25.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+14
- Partisan lean
- R+33
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Tim Burchett
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.4M
- From individuals
- $2.2M
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $967.4K
Money: FEC, through Jul 17, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.47 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+33: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 788,536
- People per km²
- 113
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 56%of adults
- White 83%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 6%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
362,098 votes · R+38.5✓ Tim Burchett (R)69.3%
Jane George (D)30.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
361,216 two-party votes · R+34.3 · R+32.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)67.1%
Kamala Harris (D)32.9%
2022 Earlier district lines
207,762 votes · R+35.8✓ Tim Burchett (R)67.9%
Mark Harmon (D)32.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
353,197 votes · R+37.1✓ Tim Burchett (R)67.6%
Renee Hoyos (D)31.1%
Matthew L Campbell (I)1.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
349,151 two-party votes · R+29.8 · R+34.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.9%
Joe Biden (D)35.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
262,134 votes · R+33.2✓ Tim Burchett (R)65.9%
Renee Hoyos (D)33.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
280,856 votes · R+51.3✓ John J Duncan Jr (R)75.6%
Stuart Starr (D)24.4%
2016 President Vote in this district
271,894 two-party votes · R+37.3 · R+39.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.3%