DemocraticIncumbent
Don Beyer
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $2.5M
- From individuals
- $1.7M
- Spent
- $2.2M
- Cash on hand
- $838.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 8th District
Beyer is very likely to win: Beyer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Beyer (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Sabio (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+58.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+50 to D+68
- Partisan lean
- D+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Beyer is very likely to win: Beyer wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Beyer (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Sabio (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+60.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+49 to D+73
- Partisan lean
- D+53
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Tony Sabio
Former CIA and Secret Service officer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $42.1K
- From individuals
- $31.6K
- Spent
- $25.1K
- Cash on hand
- $16.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 3.13 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -1.26 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+53: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 776,446
- People per km²
- 1,891
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 66%
- White, no degree
- 10%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 13%
- Asian 12%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
383,915 votes · D+48.7✓ Donald S. Beyer, Jr. (D)71.5%
Jerry W. Torres (R)24.7%
David R. Kennedy (I)2.6%
Bentley F. Hensel (I)1.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
377,475 two-party votes · D+50.9 · D+52.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)75.5%
Donald Trump (R)24.5%
2022
268,930 votes · D+49.6✓ Donald S Beyer, Jr (D)73.5%
Karina A Lipsman (R)24.8%
Teddy Fikre (I)1.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
398,046 votes · D+51.9✓ Donald S Beyer Jr (D)75.7%
Jeff A Jordan (R)24.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
534,350 two-party votes · D+57.5 · D+53.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)78.8%
Donald Trump (R)21.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
324,750 votes · D+52.5✓ Donald S Beyer Jr (D)76.1%
Thomas S Oh (R)23.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
360,687 votes · D+43.0✓ Donald S Beyer Jr (D)68.4%
Charles A Hernick (R)27.3%
Julio Gracia (I)4.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
372,165 two-party votes · D+55.0 · D+52.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)77.5%
Donald Trump (R)22.5%