DemocraticIncumbent
Valerie Foushee
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $449.7K
- Spent
- $1.1M
- Cash on hand
- $56.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
North Carolina › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina's 4th District
Foushee is very likely to win: Foushee wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Foushee (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Ganorkar (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+52.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+44 to D+62
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Foushee is very likely to win: Foushee wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Foushee (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Ganorkar (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+54.5
- 80% of outcomes
- D+43 to D+67
- Partisan lean
- D+46
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Max Ganorkar
Home building contractor and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $18.6K
- From individuals
- $10.5K
- Spent
- $17.1K
- Cash on hand
- $16.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.75 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+46: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 778,033
- People per km²
- 278
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 61%
- White, no degree
- 18%of adults
- White 53%
- Hispanic 12%
- Black 19%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
428,780 votes · D+46.6✓ Valerie P. Foushee (D)71.8%
Eric Blankenburg (R)26.1%
Guy Meilleur (L)2.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
430,124 two-party votes · D+45.9 · D+47.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)72.9%
Donald Trump (R)27.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
291,425 votes · D+33.8✓ Valerie P Foushee (D)66.9%
Courtney Geels (R)33.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
987,620 votes · D+34.6✓ David E Price (D)67.3%
Robert Thomas (R)32.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
432,385 two-party votes · D+46.3 · D+41.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)73.2%
Donald Trump (R)26.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
341,403 votes · D+50.1✓ David Price (D)72.4%
Steve A "von" Loor (R)24.0%
Barbara Howe (L)3.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
409,541 votes · D+36.4✓ David E Price (D)68.2%
Sue Googe (R)31.8%
2016 President Vote in this district
388,580 two-party votes · D+46.2 · D+43.9 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)73.1%
Donald Trump (R)26.9%