DemocraticIncumbent
Vicente Gonzalez
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $3.8M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $1.5M
- Cash on hand
- $2.5M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 34th District
Gonzalez is favored to win: Gonzalez wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Gonzalez (D)
75%
chance of winning
Flores (R)
25%
- Average margin
- D+4.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+14
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Gonzalez is favored to win: Gonzalez wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Gonzalez (D)
74%
chance of winning
Flores (R)
26%
- Average margin
- D+5.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+6 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- R+7
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Eric Flores
Former federal prosecutor and son of former state representative Ismael Flores
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $3.8M
- From individuals
- $1.9M
- Spent
- $3.5M
- Cash on hand
- $285.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.44 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Gonzalez | Flores | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University | Aug 18–Aug 22 | 700 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 | D+3.9 |
| Ragnar Research Partners for Flores's campaignR-sponsored | Jun 14–Jun 16 | 400 LV | 41 | 44 | R+3 | D+5.9 |
| co/efficient for the National Republican Congressional CommitteeR-sponsored | Apr 25–Apr 29 | 777 LV | 40 | 41 | R+1 | D+8.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Aug 22, 2026.
The district
Lean R+7: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 770,305
- People per km²
- 50
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 24%
- White, no degree
- 14%of adults
- White 18%
- Hispanic 77%
- Black 2%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 2%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
200,392 votes · D+2.6✓ Vicente Gonzalez (D)51.3%
Mayra Flores (R)48.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
237,075 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+8.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.0%
Kamala Harris (D)45.0%
2022 Earlier district lines
134,438 votes · D+8.8✓ Vicente Gonzalez (D)52.7%
Mayra Flores (R)44.2%
Chris Royal (I)3.0%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
29,069 votes · R+8.0✓ Flores, Mayra (R)50.9%
Sanchez, Dan (D)43.4%
Coronado, Rene (D)4.2%
Cantu-Cabrera, Juana "Janie" (R)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
201,130 votes · D+14.0✓ Filemon Vela (D)55.4%
Rey Gonzalez (R)41.8%
Anthony Cristo (L)1.6%
Chris B Royal (I)1.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
240,647 two-party votes · D+3.1 · R+1.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%
2018 Earlier district lines
143,068 votes · D+20.0✓ Filemon B Vela (D)60.0%
Rey Gonzalez (R)40.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
188,811 two-party votes · D+13.3 · D+11.1 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)56.7%
Donald Trump (R)43.3%