Democratic
Kent Udell
Engineer and cousin of former U.S. Interior Secretary Stewart Udall
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $91.6K
- From individuals
- $91.3K
- Spent
- $84.8K
- Cash on hand
- $6.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Utah › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Utah's 3rd District
Maloy is very likely to win: Maloy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Udell (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Maloy (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+30.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+39 to R+23
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- 1in our database
Maloy is very likely to win: Maloy wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Udell (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Maloy (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+28.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+38 to R+19
- Partisan lean
- R+43
- Polls
- 1in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Celeste Maloy
Incumbent U.S. representative from the 2nd district
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.6M
- From individuals
- $740.4K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $314.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mountain West adjustment
- +1.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.88 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 1 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Udell | Maloy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Sep 2–Sep 15 | 508 LV | 26 | 45 | R+19 | R+25.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 15, 2026.
The district
Lean R+43: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 861,669
- People per km²
- 6
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 49%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
365,036 votes · R+32.8✓ Mike Kennedy (R)66.4%
Glenn J. Wright (D)33.6%
2024 President Vote in this district
375,964 two-party votes · R+42.5 · R+41.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.3%
Kamala Harris (D)28.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
283,292 votes · R+37.1✓ John R Curtis (R)64.4%
Glenn J Wright (D)29.5%
Michael Stoddard (L)2.9%
Daniel Clyde Cummings (CST)1.7%
Aaron Heineman (I)1.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
358,844 votes · R+43.9✓ John R Curtis (R)68.7%
Devin D Thorpe (D)26.8%
Daniel Clyde Cummings (CST)2.5%
Thomas G McNeill (UUP)2.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
373,866 two-party votes · R+42.8 · R+47.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)71.4%
Joe Biden (D)28.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
258,858 votes · R+42.4✓ John Curtis (R)67.5%
James Courage Singer (D)27.3%
Gregory C Duerden (I)2.6%
Timothy L Zeidner (UUP)2.6%
2016 Earlier district lines
285,281 votes · R+46.9✓ Jason Chaffetz (R)73.5%
Stephen P Tryon (D)26.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
225,637 two-party votes · R+50.6 · R+52.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)75.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)24.7%