Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia's 6th District
McBath is very likely to win: McBath wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McBath (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Martin (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+56.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+48 to D+66
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
McBath is very likely to win: McBath wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
McBath (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Martin (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+57.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+46 to D+70
- Partisan lean
- D+50
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Lucy McBath
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1.2M
- From individuals
- $675.3K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $653.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Kevin Martin
Controller
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $10.3K
- From individuals
- $0
- Spent
- $10.2K
- Cash on hand
- $100
Money: FEC, through Mar 31, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.72 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.67 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.67 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+50: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 780,259
- People per km²
- 576
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 48%
- White, no degree
- 13%of adults
- White 29%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 51%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
370,968 votes · D+49.4✓ Lucy McBath (D)74.7%
Jeff Criswell (R)25.3%
2024 President Vote in this district
372,533 two-party votes · D+50.3 · D+51.8 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)75.2%
Donald Trump (R)24.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
332,498 votes · R+24.4✓ Rich McCormick (R)62.2%
Bob Christian (D)37.8%
2020 Earlier district lines
397,104 votes · D+9.2✓ Lucy McBath (D)54.6%
Karen Handel (R)45.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
363,086 two-party votes · D+50.0 · D+45.5 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)75.0%
Donald Trump (R)25.0%
2018 Earlier district lines
317,014 votes · D+1.0✓ Lucy McBath (D)50.5%
Karen Handel (R)49.5%
2017 specialEarlier district lines
260,316 votes · R+3.6✓ Handel, Karen (R)51.8%
Ossoff, Jon (D)48.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
290,277 two-party votes · D+43.9 · D+41.7 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)71.9%
Donald Trump (R)28.1%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
GA-3Maura KellerBrian Jack98%Rep.96%Rep. GA-4Hank JohnsonJames Duffie>99%Dem.>99%Dem. GA-5Nikema WilliamsJohn Oscar Salvesen>99%Dem.>99%Dem. GA-7Tony KozyckiRich McCormickRunoff 2%91%Rep.82%Rep. GA-11Chris HardenJohn CowanRunoff 2%91%Rep.84%Rep. GA-13Jasmine ClarkJonathan Chavez>99%Dem.>99%Dem. GA-14Shawn HarrisClay Fuller>99%Rep.>99%Rep.