DemocraticIncumbent
Jamie Raskin
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $9.1M
- From individuals
- $8M
- Spent
- $5.9M
- Cash on hand
- $8.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Maryland › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maryland's 8th District
Raskin is very likely to win: Raskin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Raskin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Riley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+68.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+60 to D+78
- Partisan lean
- D+61
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Raskin is very likely to win: Raskin wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Raskin (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Riley (R)
<1%
- Average margin
- D+68.6
- 80% of outcomes
- D+57 to D+81
- Partisan lean
- D+61
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Cheryl Riley
Public relations consultant and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $16.6K
- Spent
- $15.4K
- Cash on hand
- $1.8K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 4.66 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -0.61 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -0.61 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+61: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 764,117
- People per km²
- 1,053
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 64%
- White, no degree
- 10%of adults
- White 44%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 17%
- Asian 14%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
380,320 votes · D+57.9✓ Jamie Raskin (D)76.8%
Cheryl Riley (R)20.5%
Nancy Wallace (G)2.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
374,942 two-party votes · D+58.0 · D+59.5 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)79.0%
Donald Trump (R)21.0%
2022
264,206 votes · D+63.1✓ Jamie Raskin (D)80.2%
Gregory Thomas Coll (R)18.2%
Andrãs Garcia (L)1.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
402,614 votes · D+36.7✓ Jamie Raskin (D)68.2%
Gregory Thomas Coll (R)31.6%
2020 President Vote in this district
548,141 two-party votes · D+64.5 · D+60.0 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)82.3%
Donald Trump (R)17.7%
2018 Earlier district lines
319,330 votes · D+38.6✓ Jamie Raskin (D)68.2%
John Walsh (R)30.2%
Jasen Wunder (L)1.5%
2016 Earlier district lines
364,322 votes · D+27.8✓ Jamie Raskin (D)60.6%
Dan Cox (R)34.2%
Nancy Wallace (G)3.1%
Jasen Wunder (L)2.0%
2016 President Vote in this district
591,709 two-party votes · D+60.4 · D+58.2 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)80.2%
Donald Trump (R)19.8%