Democratic
Zach Dembo
Former federal prosecutor
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $1.5M
- From individuals
- $1.4M
- Spent
- $975.3K
- Cash on hand
- $491.3K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Kentucky › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Kentucky's 6th District
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (49% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Dembo (D)
49%
chance of winning
Alvarado (R)
51%
- Average margin
- R+0.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+8
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- 10in our database
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (46% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Dembo (D)
46%
chance of winning
Alvarado (R)
54%
- Average margin
- R+0.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+14
- Polls
- 10in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Ralph Alvarado
Former Tennessee Commissioner of Health (2023–2025), former Kentucky state senator (2015–2023), and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2019
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $2.2M
- From individuals
- $1.5M
- Spent
- $1.8M
- Cash on hand
- $359.5K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Upper South adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.12 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.73 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 10 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Dembo | Alvarado | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for Kentuckians Not Corruption, which supports DemboD-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 5 | 524 LV | 47 | 38 | D+9 | D+4.7 |
| DCCCD-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 5 | 606 LV | 46 | 40 | D+6 | D+4.7 |
| Lake Research Partners for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 400 LV | 47 | 40 | D+7 | D+1.3 |
| Lake Research Partners for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Sep 30–Oct 4 | 400 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | D+1.3 |
| GQR for Dembo's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 25–Sep 30 | 401 LV | 42 | 37 | D+5 | D+1.2 |
| GQR for Dembo's campaignD-sponsored | Sep 25–Sep 30 | 401 LV | 46 | 43 | D+3 | D+1.2 |
| Lake Research Partners for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Aug 17–Aug 23 | 400 LV | 45 | 44 | D+1 | R+4.5 |
| DCCC for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 29–Jul 30 | 474 V | 47 | 47 | Even | R+5.1 |
| GQR for Dembo's campaignD-sponsored | Jun 24–Jun 28 | 440 V | 39 | 42 | R+3 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Dembo's campaignD-sponsored | Apr 24–Apr 25 | 675 RV | 37 | 37 | Even |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.
The district
Lean R+14: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 765,667
- People per km²
- 77
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 37%
- White, no degree
- 51%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 8%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
352,635 votes · R+26.1✓ Andy Barr (R)63.0%
Randy Cravens (D)37.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
348,966 two-party votes · R+15.3 · R+13.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.7%
Kamala Harris (D)42.3%
2022
246,171 votes · R+30.2✓ Andy Barr (R)62.9%
GEOFFREY M âGEOFFâ YOUNG (D)33.7%
Maurice Randall Cravens II (—)3.4%
2020 Earlier district lines
378,388 votes · R+16.7✓ Andy Barr (R)57.3%
Josh Hicks (D)41.0%
Frank Harris (L)1.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
389,690 two-party votes · R+9.1 · R+13.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)54.6%
Joe Biden (D)45.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
302,881 votes · R+3.3✓ Andy Barr (R)51.0%
Amy McGrath (D)47.8%
Frank Harris (L)0.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
330,819 votes · R+22.2✓ Andy Barr (R)61.1%
Nancy Jo Kemper (D)38.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
306,641 two-party votes · R+18.6 · R+20.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.7%