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Florida › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida's 19th District
Schwartzel is very likely to win: Schwartzel wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Arias (D)
1%
chance of winning
Schwartzel (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+29 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Schwartzel is very likely to win: Schwartzel wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Arias (D)
2%
chance of winning
Schwartzel (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+21.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+33 to R+11
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Victor Arias
Attorney
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $70K
- From individuals
- $31.4K
- Spent
- $54.6K
- Cash on hand
- $15.4K
Money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Republican
Jim Schwartzel
President of Sun Broadcasting, owner of WFSX-FM
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2.1M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $1.9M
- Cash on hand
- $181.9K
Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 814,181
- People per km²
- 198
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 36%
- White, no degree
- 42%of adults
- White 66%
- Hispanic 24%
- Black 5%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 3%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
415,746 votes · R+32.6✓ Byron Donalds (R)66.3%
Kari L. Lerner (D)33.7%
2024 President Vote in this district
414,973 two-party votes · R+30.5 · R+29.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.2%
Kamala Harris (D)34.8%
2022 Earlier district lines
313,500 votes · R+36.0✓ Byron Donalds (R)68.0%
Cindy Banyai (D)32.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
444,648 votes · R+22.6✓ Byron Donalds (R)61.3%
Cindy Lyn Banyai (D)38.7%
2020 President Vote in this district
480,604 two-party votes · R+21.8 · R+26.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.9%
Joe Biden (D)39.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
339,820 votes · R+24.5✓ Francis Rooney (R)62.2%
David Holden (D)37.7%
2016 Earlier district lines
363,280 votes · R+31.8✓ Francis Rooney (R)65.9%
Robert M Neeld (D)34.1%
2016 President Vote in this district
385,634 two-party votes · R+24.5 · R+26.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.7%