Democratic
Marquette Greene-Scott
Iowa Colony city councilor and nominee for this district in 2024
- Experience
- Local office
- Raised
- $63.4K
- From individuals
- $55.3K
- Spent
- $62.3K
- Cash on hand
- $1.8K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Texas › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Texas's 22nd District
Nehls is very likely to win: Nehls wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Greene-Scott (D)
3%
chance of winning
Nehls (R)
97%
- Average margin
- R+13.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+5
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Nehls is clearly favored to win: Nehls wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Greene-Scott (D)
7%
chance of winning
Nehls (R)
93%
- Average margin
- R+13.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+26 to R+2
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Trever Nehls
Former Fort Bend County constable from the 4th precinct (2013–2020) and brother of Troy Nehls
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $311.4K
- From individuals
- $131.6K
- Spent
- $225.1K
- Cash on hand
- $86.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southwest adjustment
- −1.2How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.95 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 858,545
- People per km²
- 152
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 46%
- White, no degree
- 22%of adults
- White 39%
- Hispanic 29%
- Black 12%
- Asian 16%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024 Earlier district lines
336,889 votes · R+24.2✓ Troy E. Nehls (R)62.1%
Marquette Greene-Scott (D)37.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
328,546 two-party votes · R+22.6 · R+21.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.3%
Kamala Harris (D)38.7%
2022 Earlier district lines
241,291 votes · R+27.3✓ Troy E Nehls (R)62.2%
Jamie Kaye Jordan (D)35.5%
Joseph Leblanc (L)2.2%
2020 Earlier district lines
408,048 votes · R+7.2✓ Troy Nehls (R)51.5%
Sri Preston Kulkarni (D)44.6%
Joseph Leblanc Jr (L)3.9%
2020 President Vote in this district
371,815 two-party votes · R+17.6 · R+22.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.8%
Joe Biden (D)41.2%
2018 Earlier district lines
297,405 votes · R+5.0✓ Pete Olson (R)51.4%
Sri Preston Kulkarni (D)46.5%
John B McElligott (L)1.1%
Kellen Sweny (I)1.1%
2016 Earlier district lines
305,543 votes · R+19.0✓ Pete Olson (R)59.5%
Mark Gibson (D)40.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
259,797 two-party votes · R+25.6 · R+27.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)62.8%
Hillary Clinton (D)37.2%