DemocraticIncumbent
Eugene Vindman
Incumbent U.S. representative (2025–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $15.5M
- From individuals
- $14.2M
- Spent
- $9.8M
- Cash on hand
- $5.8M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Virginia › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Virginia's 7th District
Vindman is very likely to win: Vindman wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Vindman (D)
97%
chance of winning
Ollivant (R)
3%
- Average margin
- D+15.4
- 80% of outcomes
- D+6 to D+26
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Vindman is clearly favored to win: Vindman wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Vindman (D)
91%
chance of winning
Ollivant (R)
9%
- Average margin
- D+11.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+1 to D+24
- Partisan lean
- D+4
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Republican
Doug Ollivant
Former director for Iraq at the U.S. National Security Council
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $377.9K
- From individuals
- $365.4K
- Spent
- $261.4K
- Cash on hand
- $116.6K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Independent
Randall Terry
Anti-abortion activist, Constitution Party nominee for president in 2024, and perennial candidate
- Experience
- No elected office
Money: no FEC filings matched.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.78 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.21 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 1.21 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 807,791
- People per km²
- 112
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 38%
- White, no degree
- 32%of adults
- White 50%
- Hispanic 18%
- Black 20%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 7%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
397,299 votes · D+2.6✓ Eugene S. Vindman (D)51.2%
Derrick M. Anderson (R)48.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
395,046 two-party votes · D+2.9 · D+4.4 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)51.5%
Donald Trump (R)48.5%
2022
274,580 votes · D+4.7✓ Abigail Davis Spanberger (D)52.2%
Yesli I Vega (R)47.6%
2020 Earlier district lines
454,399 votes · D+1.8✓ Abigail Davis Spanberger (D)50.8%
Nick J Freitas (R)49.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
386,892 two-party votes · D+7.3 · D+2.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)53.6%
Donald Trump (R)46.4%
2018 Earlier district lines
349,831 votes · D+2.0✓ Abigail A Spanberger (D)50.3%
Dave A Brat (R)48.4%
Joseph B Walton (L)1.2%
2016 Earlier district lines
379,209 votes · R+15.3✓ Dave Brat (R)57.5%
Eileen M Bedell (D)42.2%
2016 President Vote in this district
368,447 two-party votes · D+8.7 · D+6.5 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)54.3%
Donald Trump (R)45.7%