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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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Massachusetts › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Massachusetts's 6th District

Koh is very likely to win: Koh wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Koh (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Jones (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+35.5
80% of outcomes
D+27 to D+45
Partisan lean
D+23
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Koh is very likely to win: Koh wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.

Koh (D)
>99%
chance of winning
Jones (R)
<1%
Average margin
D+31.7
80% of outcomes
D+20 to D+44
Partisan lean
D+23
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.

D+35.5R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40
D+31.7R+60R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40D+60

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Koh >99%Jones <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Koh >99%Jones <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Dan Koh

Former deputy director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs (2022–2025), former Andover selectman (2019–2021), and candidate for the 3rd district in 2018

Experience
Local office
Raised
$4.7M
From individuals
$4.5M
Spent
$2.7M
Cash on hand
$2M

Money: FEC, through Aug 12, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Micah Jones

Attorney and U.S. Army veteran

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$586.1K
From individuals
$569K
Spent
$370.6K
Cash on hand
$215.5K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Swing reaching this office
78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
New England adjustment
+4.6How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by 78% of the environment andthe New England adjustmentD+34.8Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+34.9Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Massachusetts andlook-alike placesD+37.0Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+35.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+31.7

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)1.74
Elected-experience edge0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation30
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.

The district

Lean D+23: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+19.1D+16.9 vs. nation2020 presidentD+27.8D+23.3 vs. nation2024 presidentD+21.1D+22.6 vs. nation

Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.

Who lives here

Population
780,747
People per km²
348
Adults with a B.A.+
50%
White, no degree
37%of adults
  • White 75%
  • Hispanic 12%
  • Black 3%
  • Asian 5%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.

2024

321,186 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Seth Moulton (D)100.0%

2024 President Vote in this district

422,378 two-party votes · D+21.1 · D+22.6 vs. the nation
✓ Kamala Harris (D)60.5%
Donald Trump (R)39.5%

2022

314,884 votes · D+28.3
✓ Seth Moulton (D)62.9%
Bob May (R)35.2%
Mark T Tashjian (L)1.9%

2020 Earlier district lines

437,072 votes · D+31.0
✓ Seth Moulton (D)65.5%
John Paul Moran (R)34.5%

2020 President Vote in this district

455,800 two-party votes · D+27.8 · D+23.3 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)63.9%
Donald Trump (R)36.1%

2018 Earlier district lines

333,810 votes · D+35.0
✓ Seth W Moulton (D)65.2%
Joseph S Schneider (R)31.4%
Mary Jean Charbonneau (I)3.4%

2016 Earlier district lines

308,923 votes · Uncontested by the other party
✓ Seth Moulton (D)100.0%

2016 President Vote in this district

391,340 two-party votes · D+19.1 · D+16.9 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)59.6%
Donald Trump (R)40.4%

Also on the ballot in Massachusetts

U.S. SenateEd MarkeyJohn Deaton>99%Dem.>99%Dem. GovernorMaura HealeyMike Minogue>99%Dem.>99%Dem.

Neighboring districts

MA-3Lori TrahanGary Grossi>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MA-5Katherine Clark—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. MA-8Stephen LynchRobert Burke>99%Dem.>99%Dem.