Democratic
Michael Chiaradio
Regenerative farmer
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $208.2K
- From individuals
- $182.4K
- Spent
- $175.7K
- Cash on hand
- $32.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Mississippi › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Mississippi's 3rd District
Guest is very likely to win: Guest wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Chiaradio (D)
<1%
chance of winning
Guest (R)
>99%
- Average margin
- R+26.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+37 to R+16
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Guest is very likely to win: Guest wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Chiaradio (D)
2%
chance of winning
Guest (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+20.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+9
- Partisan lean
- R+28
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Michael Guest
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $1M
- From individuals
- $547.3K
- Spent
- $475.7K
- Cash on hand
- $1.1M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.9How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -1.68 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -29.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -29.28 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean R+28: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 740,133
- People per km²
- 24
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 29%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 58%
- Hispanic 3%
- Black 33%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
265,159 votes · Uncontested by the other party✓ Michael Guest (R)100.0%
2024 President Vote in this district
319,783 two-party votes · R+29.6 · R+28.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.8%
Kamala Harris (D)35.2%
2022
187,316 votes · R+41.5✓ Michael Guest (R)70.7%
Shuwaski A Young (D)29.3%
2020 Earlier district lines
341,846 votes · R+29.3✓ Michael Guest (R)64.7%
Dorothy "dot" Benford (D)35.3%
2020 President Vote in this district
375,473 two-party votes · R+23.8 · R+28.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.9%
Joe Biden (D)38.1%
2018 Earlier district lines
257,271 votes · R+25.8✓ Michael Guest (R)62.3%
Michael Ted Evans (D)36.7%
Matthew Holland (REF)1.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
317,685 votes · R+37.1✓ Gregg Harper (R)65.9%
Dennis Quinn (D)30.3%
Roger I Gerrard (OTH)2.7%
Lajena Sheets (REF)0.7%
2016 President Vote in this district
325,221 two-party votes · R+28.0 · R+30.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)64.0%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.0%