Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York's 19th District
FusionRiley is very likely to win: Riley wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Riley (D)
96%
chance of winning
Oberacker (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+13.1
- 80% of outcomes
- D+4 to D+22
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Riley is clearly favored to win: Riley wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Riley (D)
83%
chance of winning
Oberacker (R)
17%
- Average margin
- D+8.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- D+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Josh Riley
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $4.8M
- From individuals
- $3.5M
- Spent
- $1.7M
- Cash on hand
- $3.2M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Republican
Peter Oberacker
State senator from the 51st district (2021–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $1.4M
- From individuals
- $543.1K
- Spent
- $1.4M
- Cash on hand
- $43.4K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 2.11 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.34 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.34 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places.
The district
Lean D+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 775,888
- People per km²
- 36
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 80%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
377,127 votes · D+2.2✓ Josh Riley (D)51.1%
Marcus J. Molinaro (R)48.9%
2024 President Vote in this district
381,424 two-party votes · D+1.8 · D+3.3 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)50.9%
Donald Trump (R)49.1%
2022 Earlier district lines
287,513 votes · R+1.6✓ Marcus Molinaro (R)50.8%
Josh Riley (D)49.2%
2022 specialEarlier district lines
132,155 votes · D+2.9✓ Ryan, Pat (D)51.5%
Molinaro, Marcus (R)48.5%
2020 Earlier district lines
352,777 votes · D+11.8✓ Antonio Delgado (D)54.5%
Kyle van de Water (R)42.9%
Victoria N Alexander (L)1.2%
Steven Greenfield (G)0.8%
2020 President Vote in this district
378,958 two-party votes · D+4.4 · R+0.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)52.2%
Donald Trump (R)47.8%
2018 Earlier district lines
287,786 votes · D+5.3✓ Antonio Delgado (D)51.4%
John J Faso (R)46.2%
Steven Greenfield (G)1.5%
Diane Neal (I)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
324,299 two-party votes · R+2.3 · R+4.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.9%