Democratic
Bob Brooks
President of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5M
- From individuals
- $3.9M
- Spent
- $3.7M
- Cash on hand
- $1.3M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Pennsylvania › U.S. House of Representatives · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Pennsylvania's 7th District
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (82%).
Brooks is clearly favored to win: Brooks wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.
Brooks (D)
82%
chance of winning
Mackenzie (R)
18%
- Average margin
- D+5.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+3 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (79%).
Brooks is favored to win: Brooks wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.
Brooks (D)
79%
chance of winning
Mackenzie (R)
21%
- Average margin
- D+5.7
- 80% of outcomes
- R+4 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Ryan Mackenzie
Incumbent U.S. representative
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $5.2M
- From individuals
- $1.8M
- Spent
- $3.1M
- Cash on hand
- $2.2M
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
- Swing reaching this office
- 78%Of a shift in the environment, from past House races since 2016
- Mid-Atlantic adjustment
- +0.5How House races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.69 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 3.84 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 3.84 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Brooks | Mackenzie | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 9–Sep 20 | 357 RV | 45 | 40 | D+5 | D+4.3 |
| GBAO for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jun 29–Jul 2 | 550 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 | R+0.5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 20, 2026.
The district
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 778,205
- People per km²
- 254
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 47%of adults
- White 67%
- Hispanic 21%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
403,314 votes · R+1.0✓ Ryan E. Mackenzie (R)50.5%
Susan Wild (D)49.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
407,271 two-party votes · R+3.3 · R+1.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%
2022
296,891 votes · D+2.0✓ Susan Wild (D)51.0%
Lisa Scheller (R)49.0%
2020 Earlier district lines
376,830 votes · D+3.7✓ Susan Ellis Wild (D)51.9%
Lisa Scheller (R)48.1%
2020 President Vote in this district
403,682 two-party votes · D+0.7 · R+3.8 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.4%
Donald Trump (R)49.6%
2018 Earlier district lines
263,261 votes · D+10.3✓ Susan Ellis Wild (D)53.5%
Martin W Nothstein (R)43.5%
Tim Silfies (L)3.0%
2016 Earlier district lines
379,502 votes · R+18.9✓ Patrick Meehan (R)59.5%
Mary Ellen Balchunis (D)40.5%
2016 President Vote in this district
333,824 two-party votes · R+3.0 · R+5.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.5%