Methodology
How the numbers on district pages are produced. All margins are two-party: (Democratic − Republican) ÷ (Democratic + Republican).
Fusion voting and party lines
In New York a candidate can appear on several party lines (for example Democratic and Working Families, or Republican and Conservative). Votes are reported per line and add up to the candidate's total. We show every line a candidate appears on and, for past results, the votes on each line. For margins, a candidate counts as a Democrat if they hold the Democratic line, and as a Republican if they hold the Republican line. A race where one candidate holds both major lines has no two-party margin and is treated as uncontested.
Past results on current district lines
Statewide races such as president and governor are reported by precinct (election district), and precincts don't line up with current Senate and Assembly districts. We estimate each district's result like this:
- Each 2020 census block is placed in the precinct that contains its internal point, and in the current Senate and Assembly district that contains it.
- Each precinct's votes are split across districts in proportion to the 2020 population of its blocks in each district. A precinct entirely inside one district goes to that district whole.
- Precincts with no residents (parks, water, industrial areas) are assigned whole to the district containing their interior point.
Every estimate is labelled "estimated for current lines" and records its method. As a validation check, re-aggregated totals must sum to the certified statewide totals within 2%. A failing check blocks publishing.
Precinct sources: 2016–2020, the Voting and Election Science Team; 2024 presidential, The New York Times precinct map data; other years, Redistricting Data Hub precinct files as they're imported. Legislative results are the reported totals for each district. We combine the best available source per county: NYSBOE certified results, then NYC Board of Elections, then OpenElections, with Wikipedia's transcription of certified results as a fallback. They need no re-aggregation because the current plans were in force (Senate since 2022, Assembly since 2024).
Partisan lean
For each race, the district's relative margin is its two-party margin minus the statewide two-party margin in the same race. A district that voted exactly like the state has a relative margin of 0.
Blended lean = weighted average of the available relative margins:
| Race | Weight |
|---|---|
| 2024 President | 0.40 |
| 2022 Governor | 0.25 |
| 2020 President | 0.20 |
| 2018 Governor | 0.15 |
If a race isn't available yet (for example, 2022 governor precinct data before its import), the remaining weights are rescaled to sum to 1. Legislative relative margins, measured against the aggregate of all contested seats in the chamber, are shown for context but left out of the blend because incumbency and uncontested races distort them.
Map colours use a diverging scale around zero:
- D 20+ pts
- D 10–20 pts
- D 3–10 pts
- Within 3 pts
- R 3–10 pts
- R 10–20 pts
- R 20+ pts
Flags
- Open seat: the incumbent isn't among the 2026 candidates, or the seat is vacant.
- Uncontested: fewer than two distinct candidates are on the ballot.
- Competitive: contested, and either the blended lean or the last legislative margin is within 10 points.
- Special election history: a special election has been held for the seat since 2022.
Demographics
American Community Survey 5-year block-group estimates, apportioned to districts by the share of each block group's 2020 population living in the district. Medians (income, age) are interpolated from the apportioned distributions, so they are close to, but not identical to, published Census medians. Urban share comes from 2020 census block urban/rural classification.
Campaign finance
From New York State Board of Elections disclosure filings for the current cycle (2025–2026), linked to candidates by committee. Raised is itemized and unitemized contributions; top contributors are aggregated by contributor name as reported. Public matching funds come from the Public Campaign Finance Board's payment reports. We don't offer individual donor search or export.
Polling averages
Simple mean of each pollster's most recent poll ending within 60 days of the newest poll, preferring likely-voter results. An average is shown only when at least two pollsters qualify. Every poll links to its source.
Candidates and identities
The New York State Board of Elections certified ballot is the master list. Until it's imported, lists are provisional (from Wikipedia's election pages and NYC Board of Elections primary results) and labelled as such. The same person can appear differently across candidate lists, finance filings, legislature records, and past results. We keep one canonical record per person and review low-confidence matches by hand.